Imagine for example that you guess randomly initally, then you determine that answer C is wrong. Also, let’s say answer A happens to be the correct one.

1.) If you guessed A -> remove C -> Switch to B -> Wrong

2.) If you guessed B -> remove C -> Switch to A -> Correct

3.) If you guessed C -> remove C -> have to guess at 50%.

So you are still at 50%.

The difference to Monty Hall is that after your initial guess, the host removes with 100% certainty a wrong option that is NOT your initial guess. In option 3 whter you guessed C, he would have removed the wrong answer B, letting you switch to A and get it right.

Someone explain this??? I’m just guessing, but I like your idea. kind of like how it makes sense to always change your door (when you have 3, on the second round).

So I should randomly pick B for all my guesses. Then read through the question and…

Because on montry hall we have no idea, for example, what is behind the door. Whereas during the exam we have more information and therefore is not entirely ‘luck’. I think… But then I guess elimintating one answer is similar to revealing one door. Confused…

In the Monty Hall problem, you have a 1/3 chance of guessing correctly, then Monty shows you one of the other doors (with a goat) and asks if you want to switch. Your initial guess still has a 1/3 chance of being correct, so switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning. Which door Monty shows you depends on which door you select initially, so _ your initial guess matters _.

On the Level I CFA exam, _ your initial guess doesn’t matter _; you’ll eliminate the same wrong answer no matter whether you chose A, B, or C on your initial guess. Once that answer’s gone, there are two left: if you guess, it’s 50/50.

(Actually, for me it’s more like 25/75: I’m a horrible guesser. That’s why I’d rather know than guess, and why I studied like mad before taking these tests.)

It doesn’t work. Because probabilities is a bunch of… err, well, (in my opinion) baloney. Which is why I have so much trouble with it cause I see probability of xx, I go: “so what?”