What is the best way to guess?
I mean, of course, if you can eliminate one, it gives you 50/50. So if you see anything like that you should do that.
But after that, let say you solved 110 questions and left with 10 questions.
You have NO IDEA what the answer is and you don’t even know what they are talking about.
Is it best to all in (like pick all answer ‘a’ for 10), flip a coin for each one, or just randomly select answers?
Does anyone know? I will be happy to get 33% on my guessed problems…
Here’s how you guess when you have NOOO idea and no time to really read the question:
Q1) blah blah blah blah
a) 7.31
b) 7.56
c) 24.34
(guess a or b)
Q2) blah blah something goes up, something goes down blah blah
a) higher
b) no change
c) lower
(guess a or c)
Q3) This question is written in ancient sumarian
a) -50
b) - 10
c) +50
(guess A - answer is probably negative since two of the answers are negative, and it’s probably “50” since two of the answers are 50)
Very useful tips 
sometimes you will get a string of as,bs,cs…like 4-6 in a row or more! it is hard to guess haha
You should make use of your good ol’technical analysis skills.
In this case, you don’t need to know the question, you simply need to observe the trends in previous questions to form a pattern.
so if in the last 4 questions, A isn’t the right answer, but 6 questions before then, you were convinced that A was the right answer,then you need to hold your breathe out, there may be some reversals coming up…a sorta inverse head to shoulder pattern.
I reckon the CFA exam answers market is at least weak form efficient.
it’s better to choose a “letter” and mark them all the same.
Does anyone know? I will be happy to get 33% on my guessed problems…
If you are happy with 33%, then the above strategy suggested by thegansterle is the best 
On a serious note, in Ethics the first answer which comes to your heart generally turns out to be correct. Once you start applying the mind is when the answers go wrong This is only true for questions which you have no clue about :)))
Make sure you guess one of the A, B or C
Sometimes, the answer is
a. 10
b. 30
c. 50
For this, I would choose either a or c, primarily because I would think that the question may require you to calc 30, but the some people forget to + or - 20…which is another part to the calc that gets forgotten quite easily.
The main key is to look to eliminate answers you know are false. Doing this doubles the EV of your guess from 33% to 67%. It does NOT turn it into a 50/50 shot. It’s a classic Monty Hall problem. If you can, for certain, eliminate an answer, on average you’ll get two third of the exam right; add in the answers that you know for sure, and you’re well on your way to 70%+. A couple examples: 1) A problem asks you for diluted EPS. You know you have dilutive securities, but you can’t remember for certain how to calculate diluted EPS. Calculate regular EPS. A lot of the time, this will be an option. Eliminate it from consideration, as well as any answer with a higher value 2) For the ethics questions that ask you for the most/least likely violations, rank the options if you don’t immediately know the answer. Eliminate the most likely violation from “least likely” questions and vice versa. 3) It sounds simple, but make sure you can easily recognize whether you’re dealing with a discount or premium bond. If you’re asked to find the YTM of a 5% coupon bond with a FV of 100 that’s currently selling at 98, eliminate all answers below 5%. That, or learn to use your calculator. 4) A bit of meta-advice: use what you know. Are you stuck on a question that asks you for the distance corresponding to the increase in Q due to the wealth effect? If you know which distance corresponds to the income effect, check and see if it’s an answer; chances are it is, and you can eliminate it. I had some more tips but I’m so tired that I can’t remember them. Will add them later if they come to me.
My guesswork works only 30-35% 
*When I had no idea whatsoever*, for questions at the end, I picked 1 letter. (alternatively just marking them without looking back at the answers works too). Either approach gives a 1/3 cahnce on each.
*When I had no idea whatsoever* and I would try to narrow down my choices based on ‘natural intelligence’, I would often be drawn into ‘what looks familiar’ answers and end up with less than 1/3.
That is horrible advice RE: EPS. Many of the cases the securities are anti dilutive and you have to pick the normal eps.
If question doesn’t make sense choose option which also doesn’t make sense!
it worked for me but sometimes.
the rationale behind this if I can’t understand the question why should i choose answer which makes sense/ or seems logical.
If you go straight to your scantron and just fill in the the remaining 10 without looking at the answers, you’ll have a 1/3 chance on each. No difference between AAAAAAAAAA or ABCABCABCA.
The probability of getting exatly 33% right though is 0… since you can’t get 3.3 out of 10 correct 
I guess I wasn’t clear enough. You’re right that you should always, before doing anything else in EPS questions, determine whether you’re dealing with dilutive/antidilutive securities. What I was trying to say is that if you KNOW the securities are dilutive but are not quite sure how to calculate the diluted EPS, you should calculate normal EPS just to see if it’s an option. In my experience doing mocks and QBank questions, it often is. If it is, eliminate it and, if you’ve spent a lot of time on the question and aren’t getting anywhere, guess between the other two answers. Again, you double your chances of guessing the correct answer if you can eliminate one option.
Don’t think about guessing.
Subconsciously it negatively impacts your willingness to apply logic. The pattern of As, Bs, and Cs has virtually no meaning and no relevance to draw from. Don’t get caught up in this.
I’ve been thinking about this and i’m not sure. I’m familiar with the Monty Hall problem but in that situation a wrong answer is eliminated by someone with full information. In the case of elimination of one answer we don’t have full information. The easy way to think about the Monty Hall puzzle is if there were 1,000 doors with goats and 998 were eliminated by the host, who was not allowed to eliminate your chosen one, the one you’ve picked is very unlikely to be the one with the car whereas the one he could have picked but didn’t is. However, if you get 1,000 questions and eliminate 998, it still seems like a 50/50 shot as we were allowed to eliminate both.
If we were told before the exam that no answer would be a C, it would reduce to becoming a 2-answer test, with the probability of each answer 50%.
Would be really interested if there is someone who has expertise in this area to fully explain (maybe that’s you Borlta and i’m wrong).