Hurricane Short Term Effect: Good or Bad for Equities?

Or non-event? By short term I mean, for the rest of the week (when it opens)…

Non-farm payrolls might be postponed to next week.

Yeah, but if they postpone NFP until Nov 9 instead, then Obama will look like he’s hiding some bad news until after the election.

Is this a serious question?

^Yes Ohai. Is there an obvious answer? I could see it going both ways, maybe a short term sell-off, (which I need just for a week or two and then I beg that the economy roars…)

The Dow Futures are only down 107pts right now. The past weekend’s consumer spending on the East coast spiked for staple products and light durables. Certain industrials benefitted solidly from this event. On the other hand, will there be a commensurate slowdown in activity for the next who knows when?

From CNN:

  • 200 NYU hospital patients being moved
  • Record 32.5 foot wave near NY Harbor
  • Water entering NYC subway system
  • Broken crane dangles over NYC street
  • Sandy claims first casualty in Canada

Wow water in the subway. Infrastructure repair costs are going to run into tens (or even hundreds) of millions! Big gains for civil, mechanical & electrical contractors!

^So you’re saying it will be a non-event? I was hoping for at least a small sell-off.

S&P E-minis are hovering above 1400 so not too much movement.

Well, short term earnings are going to be hit this quarter, but there will be lots of spending to repair damage long term. So you want to avoid insurers, and probably buy construction firms. The S&P probably takes a small hit, then buy the dip (except for the fact that valuations already seem high anyway).

We may actually get a pickup in employment out of this, too.

Good ol’ Broken Window stimulus

^I would mostly agree when the broken window is applied to the overall economy, but the OP specifically is wondering about equities, and they are quite fickle.