I would compare this to getting into oil in the 90’s. It’d been around for awhile, but the demand factors are there and there are fundamentally limiting factors to supply. Yes, oil co’s learned to drill deeper and process more, but in the end, a few supply adjustments couldn’t stop oil. And yes, it’s had some falls in price, but when I learned to drive around 2001, gas broke $1 a gallon and everyone freaked out. Then it rose more and they said, “Well if it breaks $2 I’m just gonna stop driving”. Now at $4, people are sure it will hit $5 in the near future. I’d say that’s exactly how I see this going. Because even if oil falls off a cliff at this point, everyone who got into oil in the 90’s is much better off for it. I’ve posted this before, but below is a great article on the geographic factors, it’s much more than just more people = more consumption.
Dude, you’re ignoring everything I’m writing, but I’m going to take another deep breath and do this again respectfully.
Read what I wrote earlier about farmers that rent. A large number of them rent the land (so they don’t own), and farms of up to 1000 acres out there are generally run by 1-2 people without additional staff (that means doing all the work, etc). Those guys pay decent money in rent so land owners still make $$$, and the farmers themselves make solid six figures. Now, yes, you might initially spend several hundred thousand on equipment (as you would with any business), and it takes a few years to learn to operate and maintain the equipment and to plan your crops accordingly. You have to figure out seed types, chemical treatments and in each lease is an agreement to meet certain soil properties at the end of the lease or pay a fine (so you don’t just deplete the soil because it’s not your land). But this is all stuff anyone on this forum could figure out within a few years on the farm or after taking a 1-2 year degree in the midwest. The upside is 8 months a year of work and six figure income. In the end, most of these guys are making a lot of money.
As you can see, yes there are landowners that are similar to operating McD’s franchises, but the farmers themselves still make $$$.
Honestly, I think a lot of the resistance is just that people (like myself) have gotten in on the tail end of finance, put in the hours, and now finding out the industry had a nice 30 years and don’t want to see ourselves passed by by a bunch of farmers. But that seems to be the case.
to each their own. i rather sit and read annual reports all day than farm. i’m not strong enough to be a farmer anyways and i heard what happens to their daughters.
just to put this thread on another tangent – what is the fascination with Rolex? i just don’t get how this particular brand continues to go up in value and is so ubiquitous. Plenty of other very appealing options for watches, but it seems like everyone who thinks they’re a BSD cannot be seen wearing anything other than a Rolex. I’d take a Ball Ceramic XV over a Submariner any day just because Subs are everywhere you turn.
anyway, i agree with the premise of playing it close to the vest. a quality luxury watch is a great conveyer of BSDness, but that too should be subtle.
Well… it’s sort of a chicken and egg thing with Rolex. It’s popular because it has good brand recognition. If you go to a bar and chicks see your IWC Portuguese, they might not know what it is, even if it is more expensive (and therefore “better”) than most Rolexes. Subtlety is admirable, and if you are content with just owning a quality piece of mechanical engineering, then maybe an obscure watch is for you. However, if, like most people, you want people to think you are a BSD, you would rationally choose a watch based on brand recognition/cost.
Also, the secondary market for Rolex is much deeper than for other brands. It is easy to browse many models from many sellers. It is also easier to sell your watch for a narrow spread. So arguably, a Rolex is better value if you plan to sell it at some point.
I agree with ohai on the branding perspective for Rolex so I have nothing to add there. However, people “in the know” would recognize an IWC watch if they saw one, and probably even people who can’t put their finger on what it is or why it looks nice would still notice it. It’s sort of like how women may not understand the in’s and out’s of men’s suiting, but they can usually tell a high-quality suit when they see one. Women just have a different eye for the aesthetic from men.
For me, I appreciate women that are subtle, tasteful and elegant – just like my watches. So I guess I wear a watch that resonates with my personality, and as a secondary effect it may be the case that it attracts a certain type of girl.
I do like the watch. I think the thing with Rolex’s is often 1) people hear about them growing up and want to buy one so they feel like they’ve made it and 2) a lot of people are solely looking to convey status and don’t know anything about watches (or even care) so they just buy one. That being said, I agree with you that watch does look nice, it’s pretty cool that you’re actually into the watches themselves as well.
I still dont get it. Mechanical watches look the same as nonmechanical watches. You can put the same face/bezel/band on a quartz watch and it will still look the same…what is the point of spending 10k on a thing that tells time?
Here’s the Omega Speedmaster model that I wear for every-day use. I bought this second-hand for around $1,000 severeal years ago, which was a steal. I would also recommend anyone here that’s looking to buy their first higher-end watch to consider a second-hand item. You save a lot of money and can still have a nice accessory – one of few accessories that men have at their disposal (along with ties and cuff-links), unlike women who have all kinds of nick nacks. You can find some deals on timezone.com if you’re discriminating
The point of my post is that (1) a decent watch can carry you a long way, and (2) like the stock market, good value investments in watches can be found with some diligence and commitment.
It’s not a rational thing. The same applies to diamonds, fine wine, designer clothes, or front row seats at sports games. It just makes you feel good because we are conditioned to react this way to luxury goods.
The only “rational” way to look at it, in my opinion, is through the social status effects mentioned above. I’m not saying that it is wrong to be irrational. Most things in life are irrational.
i like omega and almost pulled the trigger on a second hand PO a while back. while it has an unmistakable classic look, it’s another one that is becoming too popular IMO. luxury watches can have meaning that makes them priceless to the wearer. as an objectivist, i love watches because they are an artistic embodiment of the human drive for perfection.
One thing about Rolex - if you buy a used one, chances are it won’t lose much value over time. GMTs made in the 80’s are still selling for over 5k. I wonder how much they sold for new?
^that’s what i don’t get. there are plenty of watches out there that have the same level of accuracy, durability and timelessness of appearance, yet they trade at substantial discounts in the secondary market. the only reason i can think of as to why a Rolex goes up in value is because Rolex’s go up in value. I’m a seller.
better off finding the next brand that will gain favor. omega seems to be moving in this direction. they’ve been raising prices on their new lines and the older models have started to follow. i think Ball could be on this track in the relatively near future too.
