I kid you not...

Somebody just emailed me asking what stock is going to perform the best over the next 4 years. I have no idea, but if anybody else does please let me know!

some currently obscure biotech firm.

Cool, thanks. Reply sent.

You have as much chance of predicting that as getting a perfect March Madness bracket.

Like 70% chance its either MSFT or XOM

There is an article on CNN Money today declaring how GOOG passed XOM in market cap. I love watching the unwashed commoners discuss stocks, but I find it crazy that Google passed one of the best run energy companies in the world. EV is a better measure here anyway, but still. As much as the greenies want, oil, natural gas, and coal aren’t going anywhere in the foreseeable future. Long energy.

I once made the same arugment when apple surpased XOM. I couldnt fathom how such a company was more valuable than XOM

Energy is so volatile though…you can win big but also lose big during a market downturn…lose bigger than in any other sector.

Why long energy? You have decreasing net infrastructure investment in EM, new asset extraction methods depressing commodity prices and increasing competition from nontraditional energy sources. Pipelines were a good investment, and I still own some for income and tax preference, but it seems like there is a secular shift underway that has been well telegraphed and discounted.

I disagree. Even with slowing EM growth, the growth is still huge. If globally people consumed energy like we do in North America ex-Mexico, then we would have only a fraction of the supply to meet global needs. Just wait until the rural areas of China and Indian want AC and such. Yes, we are accessing more supply than ever through new technology. But that supply is expensive to access, providing a floor for prices.

Pipelines remain a fundamentally good business (though they may be expensive today). Have you seen the impact of the crude-by-rail situation on Canadian Pacific Railway’s stock price? With pricing differentials higher than ever, pipelines are a huge opportunity.

And there has yet to be an alternative energy source to fossil fuels that has proven itself credible on a large scale.

Hence why I’m long energy and will be forever. That energy source might shift in the future, but then I’ll be long that as well. :slight_smile:

Now I don’t think energy, nor a specific energy stock, will be the top performer this year. But I like it long term if you’re in the right companies.

Agree on the bullish energy outlook. They’re volatile but a lot of that is seasonality, which isn’t entirely difficult to get around.

Long the supers as they’re best able to capture the developing worlds energy demand

Long select Canadian juniors as plays like the Duvernay and Montney mature over coming years. US palyers are simply too expensive (EOG, CHK, etc).

A lot of people are concerned about the delays on pipeline development (KXL…). But IMO that’s been going on for what, 5 years now? It’s already priced in. Not to mention, rail hasn’t been half bad for us Canadians. PL would be nice but rail is faster, and has no problem shipping our stuff to the refinerys.

If you ask me, LNG probably won’t be as much of a boon as some folks would tell you, but it will still help domestic producers in a very material way.

Simple fact is, the tech sector scares the bejeebus out of me, health care is completely over my head, and I don’t trust retail. I’ll stick with my energy :smiley:

If you have the time and ability to research these companies, there are substantial opportunities in this space. There is also a lot of hype and garbage.

Google is hands down the best investment there is.

If you look at a map of the USA, you’ll notice that all of the big cities are pretty spread out, and that generally (less detroit) the big cities stay as big cities, only getting bigger.

This is because of an industrial commons/cluster that occurs, once you’re the city, you will always be the city.

Google has a similar thing going on for them.