Interest rate volatility & falling rates

Does a lower interest rate volatility imply falling interest rates?

No.

Rates might be at 20% and stable.

Ick.

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My Kaplan Quicksheet says, “When interest rate volatility increases: Value of call option increases, Value of Put Option increases, Value of callable bond decreases, Value of Putable bond increases.”

Optionality to a call or a put increases in value, but wouldn’t the value of a putable bond decrease too?

Is Kaplan viewing their opinions solely through the eyes of the bond holder and not the issuer?

Since the value of the putable bond = value of straight bond + value of put, the value of the putable bond will increase as the value of the put increases. I tend to have to write out these relationships several times until they really start to click.

Why does the value of a putable bond increase while the value of a callable bond decreases when interest rate volatility increases?

Could it not be the reverse with an increase in interest rate volatility? I just envision rates going from 8% down to 7%, up to 9%, etc. etc.

If rates are going to bounce around and I’m an issuer, not a holder of a callable bond, I would view that call provision as valuable.

I remember back in the 80s when people were getting mortgages @ 20% and higher!!! :exploding_head: :face_with_spiral_eyes: :scream: :scream: :scream:

So does the term “interest rate volatility” only apply to upward movements and not downward?

Um . . . no.

Standard deviation of continuously compounded returns. Ups and downs.

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Okay, that makes perfect sense. Now, why does the value of a putable bond increase while the value of a callable bond decreases when interest rate volatility increases?

If rates are going to bounce around and I’m an issuer, not a holder of a callable bond, I would view that call provision as valuable. I would call the bonds when rates move lower during the said “volatility”.

My Kaplan Quicksheet says, “When interest rate volatility increases: Value of call option increases, Value of Put Option increases, Value of callable bond decreases, Value of Putable bond increases.”

There is very simple explanation

Value of Puttable Bond = Value of Simple Bond PLUS Value of Embedded Put Option

Value of Callable Bond = Value of Simple Bond MINUS Value of Embedded Call Option

When interest rate volatility increases the value of both options increases too. Value of Callable Bond decreases then.

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Increase in vol , increases value of long option

If you owna putable bond you have
Bought a bond and are LONG a put option

if you own a callable bind you have
Bought a bond and are SHORT a call option

You have to take the perspective of the investor, not the issuer.

Owning a callable bond in a volatile scenario increases the chances of it being called away from me, so it’s worth less. Conversely, owning a putable bond gives me the optionality to put it back to the issuer, making it worth more for me.