anyone familiar with intradedotcom? can you really invest and make money on this? has anyone been doing this that can elaborate
Money can be made, however it is pure speculation. Liquidity is really bad.
I haven’t been investing on intrade, but I follow it somewhat often. The US/Israeli bombing of Iran before Dec 08 contract has me pretty concerned - it’s been trading around 30 lately (didn’t check today). Intrade was an excellent predictor of the presidential primaries over the past year. I would imagine you could make some real money on it, but the potential is there to lose it, just like any other market. Also you can’t go short on intrade - the best approximation to this is buying an “opposite outcome” contract. There was a good thread about this last week or so - use the search (I’m too lazy to dig it up).
Anyone know what McCain is trading at today? I get to the site from work.
McCain = 45 Obama = 55
obama is so going to win this election. i am too lazy to do the research, but if i wanted to “invest” $200 towards his win and he wins, how much do i win?
$363
I can’t get to the site from the bank either but it looks like McCain got a 5pt pop from the milf momentum.
TJR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > $363 im opening an account and doing this today if this is true
^^I wouldn’t be so sure of that. McCain’s come up quite a bit against Obama since Palin was nominated - I think the Dems could be in trouble. I heard someone call it snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Note to the “crazy neocon fratboys”: This is not an endorsement of either candidate.
juventurd Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I can’t get to the site from the bank either but > it looks like McCain got a 5pt pop from the milf > momentum. LOL, awesome
TJR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > $363 That’s the gross, not the net. Obama is currently at 55.7 meaning you could buy a $10 contract for $5.57. If he wins you redeem your contracts for $10 $200.52 / 5.57 = 36 contracts 36 * 10 = 360 If Obama Wins Less 36 * 5.57 = 200.52 = 159.48 So, because he is the favorite, you’re putting $200 at risk to win $160.
Who is the counterparty to these transactions?
law down 200 to win 160 huh? i really really think he is going to pull this off. i am still planning on doing this later today. just to get my feet wet. all i wanna know is… WHOS COMING WITH ME?!
ditchdigger2CFA Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Money can be made, however it is pure speculation. > Liquidity is really bad. Maybe money can be made by providing liquidity… Now, how would one do that…
ditchdigger2CFA Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Who is the counterparty to these transactions? Ultimately, the site itself since each user has an account with them. You are basically entering into a binary futures contract, which expires at $10.00 if you are correct and $0.00 if you are wrong. Somebody has taken the other side of this bet and will receive the opposite outcome. The site handles the money and takes a cut for their troubles.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Maybe money can be made by providing liquidity… > Now, how would one do that… People do provide liquidity, but I think given the light volume it would be tough to make much money.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ditchdigger2CFA Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Money can be made, however it is pure > speculation. > > Liquidity is really bad. > > > Maybe money can be made by providing liquidity… > Now, how would one do that… Answering my own question… I guess since it’s an option, you’d need to do some kind of dynamic hedging, which would require buying and selling the underlying. But there’s no underlying to buy or sell here… it’s an incomplete market, no way to provide liquidity, hence little liquidity.