I’m saying no. While one could pick up some great buys, it will take an awfully long time to see appreciation. I’m thinking another year at least of a bearish market.
Based on what? Picking market bottoms by just guessing and trying to be a hero?
The next 12-18 months will likely trade sideways. If you find the bottom in market let me know.
only monkeys pick bottoms. Yes.
I keep using EFA index as an example. EFA is down almost 28% YTD. Since 1970 it has never turned in a year that bad. This is a very very very very SAFE time to be buying if you have a decent time horizon (4+ years).
It might be worth looking at dividend paying stocks in sectors like consumer staples. If they’ve gone down because of generalized panic, they might be oversold. You could still see some capital depreciation while the market shakes some more, but at least you’d have some dividend income. Of course if they go down more, you’d be getting better dividend yields then. Other than that, probably best to stay away. It’s probably better to arrive a little late to a new uptrend than try to catch falling knives.
what about ETF’s ? XLF …if your looking long term
Eshhhh…i dont know about XLF man…I know its been beat down bad but wow a lot can happen still in that sector…maybe if you got a lot of powder to average down if need be
I saw some study from AAII that implied over the long term you’ll do just as well with a portfolio completely void of financials! I believe it!
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I saw some study from AAII that implied over the > long term you’ll do just as well with a portfolio > completely void of financials! I believe it! hahaha was the edition date of this research = September 15th 2008?
Actually, it was a good few years ago while the financials were flying high. I think it was in conjunction with their shadow stock screen portfolio (which usually does pretty good and is void of financials). The first stock in my active investing career that I ever went way overweight in was a financial… Novastar. I made tons of money. I sold it and regretted selling it because it went up another 300% after I sold. They are now bankrupt. That kind of thing rarely happens with a biotech or a natural gas company, etc. I look at some of those mortgage reits I invested in back in 2002 and they’re all gone (or trade for pennies). New Century, Thornburg, NFI, Impact… Annaly is still around and I BOUGHT SOME TODAY! crazy world we live in!
I bought some S&P mid cap and small cap ETFs today. These will be held for a very long time. If things still keep going badly I am fortunate that I at least missed a 3 day 5% drop.
Got into BAC at 27/share. 3-5 year holding period and I think its been made clear that these guys have been annoited one of the super banks to come out of this mess on the other end.