Seriously running out of time to really go to deep into some of the more complicated topics like options pricing etc. So my strategy is to just skip over 1-2 of those sections and hope for the best. Is there a penalty for guessing on the CFa exam? thx
Know 50% with almost certainty, guess on the other 50%… .5(100%) + .5(33%)=66.5%. Tweak these numbers a little and get 70%. Probability theory at its finest.
Now use Bayes theorem to calculate the conditional probability of passing, given you guess on 50% of the exams. Assume the probability of guessing an answer correctly has a discrete uniform distribution, and that the probability of getting a question that you’re almost sure of the answer right is a bernoulli random variable where p = .95. You have 1.5mins. go!
junetesttaker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Seriously running out of time to really go to deep > into some of the more complicated topics like > options pricing etc. So my strategy is to just > skip over 1-2 of those sections and hope for the > best. > > Is there a penalty for guessing on the CFa exam? > thx Yes. For every wrong answer they deduct points from your overall score. So just leave it blank if you don’t know it.
Since level 1 is taken on a computer, those who are big gammers have an advantage to those not used to staring at a screen for 8 hours.
Try and give it your best shot, most people on this forum study very hard for the exam and even the thought of leaving any sections untouched is very disturbing. However on the exam , there is no negative marking, no marks would be deducted if you incorrectly answer any question.
If you’re going to guess, guess one choice consistently. Except of course if you can rule that answer out with 100% confidence
That is a good point Conquistador. You would rather have the consistency of guessing because being all wrong on several guesses is much worse than being all right. I would take the straight 33% probability on the guessing Qs vs. trying for 60% and getting 10%.
thatll only work if theres consistently equal numbers of abc correct answers on each session though…
3 choices should help with the narrowing down of qualitative questions, although I don’t see how it will help with any quantitative questions.