Curious as to how everyone is feeling about the market conditions (other than they are volatile), and if anyone thinks we are tapping a double bottom tomorrow and going to start working our way back up or if this boat is only half-way sunk. So the question becomes if you would put cash to work tomorrow into equities or let it sit on the sidelines for awhile? My view(guesstimate) is that we are going lower as jobs come out tomorrow, but after the SPX dips a bit she is gonna come bouncing back once we test the previous low. I think we are going to see some decent progress ahead of another round of financial beatdowns, subprime messes, and slowing economy realities. If I am wrong and we drop below the 1290ish level, the CFA might not mean anything as their may be no market left to analyze…opinions?
A bottom? I think there is lots more trouble ahead.
Nonsense. Tommorow may be a weekly bottom, or a monthly, but until we’re in the low 11000’s or even high 10000’s I wouldn’t be calling a bottom. This is a short term phenomona, in the big picture the global economy is the strongest it has been since the Industrial Revolution and more money will be made in the next 25 years or so than anytime since the beginning of time itself. After that it gets sketchy perhaps…
Tomorrow goes lower but ends IN THE GREEN cuz the plunge protection team doesn’t like to leave red on a Friday. I’m bidding on some municipal bonds. I’m very excited about getting 6% tax free until they call’em or get reset. Heads I win… Tails I don’t lose anything.
Far from the bottom my friend- We still have to enjoy the Student Loan Mess, Credit Card Mess, CMBS mess and the never ending RMBS mess. Fun times…Yeehaa
Oh I am not sayin we are hittin ground level, but even if this turns into a month long rally I would be happy, I have no problem puttin some etfs to work short term if she is gonna bounce a bit. Tomorrow it is gonna test that previous short term bottom for support, and if it holds it might be a time to start building. I am fearful til Q3, but would like to dip my toes a bit instead of sit in cash and take the relative gain…maybe DCA in might be a decent strategy at this point?
Munis! Yeah I would love to get my hand on some munis but the only way to fill the orders now is to bid up big…state specific that is…probably due to being in a state without major issues but still, cut a guy a break and give him a bond at a reasonable price. Plus I don’t wanna have to try and unload them in 6 months or whenever things clear up…tis equities or tis nada
Double bottom? If you look at the 10-year chart on the SPX, it appears we’re on the downward slope of a double top…
I think there are some bargains out there already. Some of the financials just look really cheap. A company like UBS, for instance, with a franchise that I think will stand the test of time, has a market cap of $60bn. No matter what happens in terms of write-downs next year, banks will always be the grease that oils the machinery of the world economy. Hartford Financial is of interest to me at the moment. And when I model companies like GlaxoSmithKline, even apocalytic assumptions barely reconcile with the current price. I can’t make money (to invest) fast enough at the moment. Fear is out there. I just bought a UK-based manufacturer of specialty parts that can continue to grow earnings at 8%pa for a very long time. Stock price fell 30%-odd in a short time-frame b/c the CEO expressed caution about the USD. I am not making a call on this year or next, but there are certain dislocations out there. I feel quite confident saying that.
CFA_Halifax Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > and more > money will be made in the next 25 years or so than > anytime since the beginning of time itself. Stealing Virgin’s thunder here - and Bernanke is making it as fast as he can print it!
Yes, EXACTLY at 10:43am Eastern Time it will be the bottom of the US stock market. And Yes, I’M THAT GOOD of a forecaster… When has market timing ever worked?
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > CFA_Halifax Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > and more > > money will be made in the next 25 years or so > than > > anytime since the beginning of time itself. > > Stealing Virgin’s thunder here - and Bernanke is > making it as fast as he can print it! LOL OK, more Euros, Yuan, Pounds etc. will be made!!!
Ha, this post is just beatiful. I can read this post and everyday and wonder the same thing everyday.
Well I guess you could bash on people for holding cash back rather than staying fully invested, saying they are timing the market as well…but to me those people are outperforming the equity markets so far this year not by timing but by using all the info out there to make decisions on what to do with their assets. So who says there is no reason to try and find a decent time to start building a position with that cash? I am not saying you go all in because you think a bottom might be coming, but whats wrong with being a little tactical? I mean where does the discussion end, when we all put our money in index funds cuz there is no use trying to beat the market?
Tomorrow IS the bottom. I can feel it in my loins.
yeah I feel that Sunday will close flat from Saturday…
“Well I guess you could bash on people for holding cash back rather than staying fully invested, saying they are timing the market as well…but to me those people are outperforming the equity markets so far this year not by timing but by using all the info out there to make decisions on what to do with their assets.” Don’t disagree with your larger point. That said, it makes you sound stupid when you say that taking money out of the market because you think it’s a “bad time to invest” and then waiting to put your money back in until it’s “a good time to invest” isn’t market timing. What do you think market timing is, if not that?
By the time people realize that market is going up, market is already up by 20%-30%, market can move up just as swfitly and voilently as it moves down.
Etienne Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Tomorrow IS the bottom. I can feel it in my > loins. [Ronnie Barker Sketch] What’s your loins? [/Ronnie Barker Sketch]
Clarification-I am not referring to pulling money out and back in, I am referring to new money coming in as cash and trying to determine when to start entering the fray. So I hear ya newsmaker. Also agree with ws, i am not trying to bottom tick but not trying to miss that turnaround by a whole lot either if i can avoid it by entering smartly(is that even a word?).