It's the apocalypse investment ideas

Couldn’t find the investment forum.


i’m going for strong balance sheets with cash on hand and little debt.
I think the best move at this point in time is google. it’s a no brainer. 100b on deck. their revenue and earnings are going to drop since they are ad based. but i think more people are going to discover that youtube’s content is amazing and can replace all the premium content you have. essentially trading at 18x once you factor in the cash it has. and it is growing at a 20% clip right now. this’ll be a beast 10 years from now.
i got 2 other ideas. i’ll come back once i got a position. waiting for spy to hit 238.

Question, the S&P falles 5.25% today, but yet VIX is also down 2%. Is this jus becaue people aren’t buying puts any longer? Meaning they really think this is the bottom?

I’m sitting on quite a bit of cash - about 60% of my portfolio. I have a pretty solid IPS except for when and how I should start buying when sh!t hits the fan, which obvi is the case right now. Don’t want to act prematurely but at the same time timing the bottom is pretty difficult. Any ideas? DCA 5 purchases during the next 4-5 months?

DIS seems like a good buy right now.

I’m mostly cash still. Holding some deep OTM calls on DIS and AMZN. Playing with cheap weekly puts like GE and GM.

at what point would you buy then if not durign a 30% crash? 40%? 50%? you are close to bottom. drop it like its hot.

It’s difficult to know. SPY is only at its 2017 levels. There’s more room for some downside once this virus really hits the US. Probably going to wait for a few more weeks and then make it rain like it were 03/2009. How I see it is that I have a 40-45yr horizon, might as well try to hit the jackpot and risk missing the bottom.

This is kind of flawed on a couple levels. What’s jackpot? You gain another 10%? Are those odds much different than you would miss a 10% recovery? Just ladder in, 25% a week or every two weeks.

are you 10 years old? retire at 45

Welcome back! Good to see you again.

Good points above. yeah, the odds of success aren’t that great but it’s tempting to try nevertheless. We’ll see.

I’m still buying SSO, ROM, and QLD almost every day. Using a hybrid dollar-cost-averaging / Martingale strategy. I figure I have enough cash for about five more trading days then I’ll just have to sit and see what happens.

I’m with you on SSO - I’m going to begin buying it tomorrow.

Along the same vein, anyone with an HSA with over $1,000 in it should use their investment options. Nearly every HSA has something like a Vanguard 500 Index fund as an option. Since HSAs are the best retirement savings account available, be sure you put your money to work. And max it out. HSAs are awesome. Triple tax free. Take that’s government that bailing everyone out!

Ninja edit for grammar before S2000 could get me again.

I think today is the day to add DAL

I sold a building that settled at the end of Feb (lucky timing), so I have a lot of dry powder. I have not purchased anything as yet. There is value in the market now, but from a sentiment perspective there is just too much more bad news on the way I think. I do not want to stand in front of that.

That said, I haven’t touched my existing investments since the start of March. I don’t really do short term trading and I have no hotel, airlines/transport, energy or restaurant names. I’m comfortable with what I own.

Thinking of selling Teledoc (TDOC) it has done well and may actually benefit from COVID, but I feel like there is going to be opportunity to deploy the money elsewhere in the coming month or two.

Final thought: Wouldn’t it be awesome if a vaccine miraculously came out and we had a V shaped recovery in March that ended it flat.

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With DAL the airline specific funds in the imminent stimulus bill may help put a floor under them. Leverage is low like 1x, margins are industry leading with the best financial position ex LUV but unlike LUV they have no fuel hedging. As you consider the fuel benefits exiting this and the gains from foreign airline consolidation and trimmed order books I’m really liking the long term setup.

lol imo. there is no way this ■■■■ will be v shaped. unempoyment is set to spike. earnings are set to drop for q1 and q2. credit is deteriorating fast . spreads are widening. and it is very important to note that when we were at 3400, at last years earnings. we were at a 25x multiple. the median multiple in the last 30 years or so it is prolly closer to 18x, close to where we are now. if you look at it from a longer perspective the median pe should be closer to 15. earnings will prolly revert back a lot more than prices, if i had to guess.
in any case, id still buy. the markets are down ~33% from the peak. can we go down lower? prolly. but we are pretty close to the bottom imo. how low can we go? 2200 at 16x? 2000 at 15x? 1800 14x? 1700 at 12x.5?

I’m not calling for V shaped anything. I’d go for long flat U and I think we’re near there. Yep, big economic news coming, but a lot of really bad technicals and trading liquidity problems are going to be fading that have been really hurting valuations. It’s also the case that when you raise those points you’re just debating yourself because I haven’t heard a single market participant disagree recently, that’s base case. The speed of this move is historic.

People like to talk about “but we won’t be at 100% in 4Q or maybe even next year”. Doesn’t matter, we were nowhere near 100% in 2010, but markets had recovered to be forward looking. I also think looking back at multiples misses the point, interest rates and monetary policy are a huge part of relative value that can’t be ignored.

I just laid in my first big single name move with DAL today and will probably do one or two other names next week then gradually accelerate to about 10 names combined over the next month. But I do think the specifics to DAL make a lot of sense right now.

The thing I don’t understand about this situation is that because the disruption was caused by a non-economic factor, a lot of people seem to think that if we solve the corona-problem, everything will go back to how it was. But the valuations, the system in general with the QE ■■■■, near-0% rates, the ECB struggling to create demand, shows that the situation was phucked even before corona. Corona was just the trigger IMO. Even if we remove corona from the equation, we’re still left with an unhealthy reliance on central banks, unnaturally low rates and with a lot of companies that should not exist anymore. I was 60% cash before corona, and I started increasing my purchases little by little (thanks @Black_Swan) because of the market drop, but even if corona were to disappear tomorrow, I’d be a little iffy to go all-in! The system is broken IMO and it really needs to real reset before we can see a really healthy situation.


I agree, a lot of those problems are tied to slowing population growth at the root and an attempt to prop up historic norm growth rates. I also think that big picture what this will ultimately do is pull forward and make more acute the public deficit problem looming in the mid-2020’s. As entitlements meet deficits and markets struggle to digest heavy treasury supply. But in the here and now the setup is extremely attractive for a 1-2 year horizon.

One of the points I raise is Italy was in recession late last year with Germany and Eurozone teetering, industrial was weak and I was hugely bearish on Boeing segments of the commercial aerospace market for an end to the airline cycle I saw as naturally occurring. I never expected it to play out this way, but much like COVID-19, preexisting conditions have made this worse and pulled things forward. When we exit this there will certainly be problems holding back the outlook but there will also be some offsets (fiscal/monetary/low oil primarily) that about wash each other out.

Anyhow, better wait until you’re a year out then decide if you want to thank me or chase me down.