In case you are interested and want to update your forcasts on the LIII passrate, the June 2011 CFA Exam Pass Rates are … Level I: 39% Level II: 43% (as posted by the CFAI)
I expect level III to be 42%.
Not clear whether that’s good or bad for us. For the last 4 years, the Level II and Level III pass rates have moved in the same direction. But 50% of the time over the last 10 years and the last 20 years, they have moved in opposite directions, sometimes wildly.
43 is pretty low. making me nervous. i guess 3 will be around 46
Damn, I am on fire. I didn’t do well in morning exam. The odd of passing is 50 : 50.
What I noticed was the break down of the results of those who passed. It looked like the pass mark was lower this year from the results posted on the Level II forum. NOt sure what that means for level 3 at all though :-s
Millview Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What I noticed was the break down of the results > of those who passed. It looked like the pass mark > was lower this year from the results posted on the > Level II forum. NOt sure what that means for level > 3 at all though :-s Lower pass mark is BAD BAD BAD.
its funny i felt this way coming out of the exam when i realized that no one was really complaining about the exam…either people had on their game faces or the exam didnt really do a good job in differentitating well prepared able minded candidates from those who were not as well prepared etc…i feel that this leads to a really fine dividing line between say a band 8-10 to a pass…thats not what i hoped for at all …anyways this is just speculation good luck to all!
I love how everyone makes assumptions based off of level 2 passing rates. Do you think they consider level 1 and level 2 passing rates when determining the MPS for level 3? I would say no. So then there is no real correlation between the two, which makes this whole topic irrelevant
The highest pass rate for level 2 in the last three years! That means they will do the same for level 3. So the pass rate will be 50% plus. Yay!
BobFishcake Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The highest pass rate for level 2 in the last > three years! That means they will do the same for > level 3. So the pass rate will be 50% plus. Yay! Overconfidence bias
representativeness
please don’t remind me of how ambiguous those behavioral finance questions were…
L2 pass rate is normally lower than L3. I would guess L3 in the range of … 45% - 51%
If level 2 pass rate is 4% higher than last year then the level 3 pass rate must also be 4% higher. Therefore the 2011 level 3 pass rate is 50%.
BobFishcake Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > If level 2 pass rate is 4% higher than last year > then the level 3 pass rate must also be 4% higher. > Therefore the 2011 level 3 pass rate is 50%. QED
Status quo bias
Anyone thinking about mean reversion theory Pass rate 2001-2010 ------- 2011 Level 1 39% ----------- 39% Level 2 44% ----------- 43% Level 3 59% ----------- ? Source: http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/Documents/1963_current_candidate_exam_results.pdf
inferno Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Anyone thinking about mean reversion theory > > Pass rate 2001-2010 ------- 2011 > Level 1 39% ----------- 39% > Level 2 44% ----------- 43% > Level 3 59% ----------- ? > > > > Source: > http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/Documents/1 > 963_current_candidate_exam_results.pdf I wud love to see 59%, but guessing it will be close to 55%.
The only problem with a high L3 pass rate is that when one of us does fail we feel extra miserable:(