# Just a repeater's observation...

I think CFAI’s new 3 question system will seriously raise the minimum passing mark. I don’t remember this many people getting scores above 70 last year on the Schweser and CFAI exams. I hope I’m wrong but I definitely see a sharp rise in the amount of people that are scoring higher than 70 based on posted marks. On the other hand, it could just mean that this year’s AFers are a lot more prepared for the exam than last year. I hope that is the case

Well, we don’t know for sure who is padding their scores, so I wouldn’t worry too much about that.

Gee thanks for that. I got 77 on Mock AM and 78 on Mock PM. I guess now you’re saying that’s borderline?

It probably means there are more people sitting home now, and are able to put in the time to study…so grades are up. Chances are, the minimum passing score will go up - more likely due to extra studying time rather than omitting a distractor.

+self-report bias +survivorship bias

deep2002 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > On the other hand, it could just mean that this > year’s AFers are a lot more prepared for the exam > than last year. I hope that is the case Dude, we had some rockin’ scores last year… Look at the beginning of the scores thread (all 2008).

3 choices will raise the mps, but very unlikely to a make a candidate pass who is not prepared to pass. i think if cfai is smart, then they will make sure that the “Effective” probability of anyone guessing a question right is also 33% and NOT 50%. When they had 4 answer choices, the EFFECTIVE probability of getting answer right was 50% cuz the distractor would make it easy to eliminate another one. This time I think all 3 answer choices will be valid. Notice how sometimes, the answer choices has, a) 2, b) -2, c) 70. And the correct answer is the odd one, which is 70. So if you have no clue what you are doing, then guessing would probably be from a, and b. not c. making guessing a wrong seemingly simple.

Confidence is key here everyone… You gotta believe and make it happen… we dont know who is borderline, so work hard until the bell, then we will find out

im doing worse than most ppl here on exams. not posting my scores on here because they are lower than other ppls’. hoping that most others are like me.

Well it could just mean that AFers are more prepared this year! Mcleod we had some high scores but I don’t remember it being as frequent. Now there are biases but same could be said for last year. Anyways it doesn’t matter, like CFAdream says just gotta chug along until you get into level 3 forum. AFers do historically do significantly better than the mass test writers so thats a real good thing

count me in “Show”, scores are too bad but not losing hope at all!

Well I took the plunge and did the mock like a real exam. I got a 50%. I’m still pushing, preparing for the best but ready for the worst. You seem like you’re in better shape than me theshowny.

youve gotta believe that for every 5 people who post on here saying they got an 88 on the mock and are terrified because “they feel like they got lucky and dont know what theyre doing” there are another 35 ppl who are getting in the 50s and 60s and want to cry themselves to sleep rather than posting their score on a thread that has all passing grades.

On the other hand, I think this year we have more materials to cover than last year. e.g. reporting quality in FS, Private equity in AI and taxes in PM. What this means is, the mock exams could be a poorer predictor of actual exam performance than last year due to diluted coverage. There is also the late twist from CFAI (IFRS > GAAP). What I did observe though with the new 3 stems system, is that it actually reduces the time to write the exam if you know the questions. Could this be a sign that this year’s exam is going to be more taxing on time? We shall see.

and you’ve gotta also believe for every 35 ppl that are not hovering around 60% range, there are about 50 like me who haven’t got a clue of the score cuz they’ve still got stuff to read before they go to sleep.

many of the scores I have seen posted are from people I would expect them from. Repeaters, guys who seem to know their stuff cold from their other posts, etc. I agree there are tons of people on the forum and not on the forum that are not getting scores even close to this. Example: Schweser 1AM test, avg score posted on Schweser site is 69%(hehe).

supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > +self-report bias > +survivorship bias Haha, I couldn’t help but laugh at the survivorship bias part.

tvPM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > many of the scores I have seen posted are from > people I would expect them from. Repeaters, guys > who seem to know their stuff cold from their other > posts, etc. I agree there are tons of people on > the forum and not on the forum that are not > getting scores even close to this. Example: > Schweser 1AM test, avg score posted on Schweser > site is 69%(hehe). i thought about this tvpm. the first 5 or so scores on schwesers site have the average grades fluctuate from like 66 to like 71 i think (i took my last exam last tues or wed). so youve gotta think that those taking the schweser exams are more prepared + last tues was fairly early so its the more prepared ppl as im sure some are leaving them to this week + the bottom 35% are not included. some rays of hope…