Leading economic indicator - Nonfarm payroll

CFA Level III
#1

Why nonfarm payroll isn’t one of them? Thanks.

US leading indicator index (number are the weights):

  1. Average weekly hours, manufacturing 0.2552

  2. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance 0.0307 3. Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials 0.0773 4. Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index 0.0668 5. Manufacturers’ new orders, non-defense capital goods 0.0183 6. Building permits, new private housing units 0.0271 7. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 0.0391 8. Money supply, M2 0.3550 9. Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds 0.1021 10. Index of consumer expectations

#2

Because it is not a leading indicator…

Jobless claims is weekly and you will see those employment numbers before monthly NFP, also purchasing mgrs indices show regional and national employment components which can affect NFP.

Payroll is a summary of data, some of which has already been made available.

#3

I read from somewhere said nonfarm payroll is the leading indicator for the business cycle.

I forgot where I see it… :frowning:

#4

If it’s not in the CFA curriculum it isn’t true for our test.

#5

For leading indicatiors, below are useful!

Stock prices, 500 common stocks Money supply, M2 Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

#6

I don’t think we need to know the leading / coincident / lagging indicators anymore? No longer in any LOS’s. Correct me if I’m wrong…

#7

Boom, money shot.

#8

Be able to talk abouit their limitation. For exmpale,

  • It has been observed in the past that they are not effective on a consistent basis due to changes in the relationships between inputs.

  • They may provide false signals. - Some data series are reported with a lag. - Some data series are subject to revisions.

#9

Nice - thanks June