Here’s the game: Quiz the people below you on a list to memorize. For example, list the psychological traps in making economic forecasts (6): 1. Process vs. outcome 2. Recallability trap 3. Overconfidence 4. Status quo 5. Confirming evidence 6. Anchoring Memory tool: “PROSCAr”. It’s the popular anti-hair loss drug also known as Propecia. Rules: - If you’re the first to post the answer, request the next list - If someone already posted it, do not request a list although you may still answer it yourself. - Try to state the memory tool that you use if you have one. ------------------------- I’ll start: Name the problems encountered in economic forecasting (9).
good idea. I will post when I think of something.
I thought this thread would have more success than this! Name the problems encountered in economic forecasting (9): 1. Data measurement error and bias 2. Issues with the model used 3. Using ex-post data to make ex ante predictions 4. Misinterpretation of correlations 5. Non-repeating data 6. Non-constant data 7. Issues with economic data 8. Issues with historical estimates 9. Psychological traps ------------------ For the nest person: Name the properties of a valid benchmark (7)
I have a real hard time remembering those 9 points as I can’t come up with a good acronym or mnemonic. Anyone got any good ones? S - specified in advance A - accurate M - measurable U - unambiguous R - reflective of current investment opinions A - accountable I - investable Hope I got those right. Next: What are the requirements for performance reporting in GIPS?
2nd one is “Appropriate”
edit: should be appropriate, not accurate. my bad.
first A is applicable
Firm Definition Redefinition of firm- date and reason Composite- Complete List and Description Description of Composite Composit creation date Minimum Asset Level in Composite Redefinition of composite- date and reason Composite name change Fee Schedule Gross or Net of Fees Gross Fees- any trading or deductions Net Fees- any fees in addtn to mgmt or trading % of Fees Bundled Content Bundled Fees Calculating returns- addition Dispersion Method used Significant events affecting performance Currency Identity Exchange Rate Inconsistencies Sub-Advisor Use and period Leverage- Use and presence of Withholding Tax Treatment Carve-Out Cash Policies Local law- conformity vs. GIPS Disclosure of last business day used Period and Nature of Inconsit. With Gips Prior to Jan 2000 Any good lists for Options?
wow…I’m not memorizing all that. I just know that for the return table - BRAND. Benchmark Returns Assets (total of % of total) Number of composite portfolios Disperion
Yeah sorry guys, got my “A’s” screwed up in SAMURAI… have yet to review it.
MP it’s horrible to have to memorize but I think it has to be done. Recs came from talking to a couple of the AF’ers that passed last year
mp, I don’t have a memory tool for the 9 problems. What are the requirements for performance reporting in GIPS? 1. Specify whether gross or net 2. If gross, disclose all fees in additions to direct trading expenses 3. If net, disclose all fees in additions to direct trading expenses and management fees 4. Treatment of withholding taxes 5. Fee schedule 6. Disclose which portfolios have a bundled fee structure 7. Disclose what the bundled fees are comprised of 8. Disclose how cash is allocated to carve outs 9. Specify whether end of month or last business day of the month is used for valuations 10. Date of creation 11. Any name changes 12. Date and nature of redefinition 13. Minimum size of the portfolios 14. Internal measure of dispersion 15. Use of derivatives or leverage 16. Currency used 17. Any inconsistencies in foreign exchange rates 18. Firm definition 19. Reason and nature of redefinition 20. State that additional information on calculations and presentations are available 21. State that a list of all firm composites are available 22. Any information that may help interpret presentations 23. Period and nature of non-compliance (before 2000) 24. State if sub advisor was used and how (before 2006) 25. How GIPS conflicts with local law 26. Any significant events that may help interpret performance ---------------------- Next: State the properties of a good ERM system
Agreed - I’ve now memorized that the “A’s” in SAMURAI both have “Ap’s” in it (applicable and appropriate). Not forgetting this.
Remember there are 3 (able’s) in the list of Samurai.
It’s appropriate and accountable. App Acc
good ERM system - It should identify potential risks & quantify them. Continuous monitoring and it should provide feedback. Is that what you were talking about?
Slash Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It’s appropriate and accountable. > > App Acc Noted. FML.
mp2438 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > good ERM system - > > It should identify potential risks & quantify > them. Continuous monitoring and it should provide > feedback. > > Is that what you were talking about? 1. Must allocate capital on a risk adjusted basis 2. Must have a committee in place that overlooks the ERM system and gives timely feedback to issues 3. Risks are properly managed - familiar risks are managed with experience - unfamiliar risks are hedged 4. Identify and defintes all internal and external risks 5. ERM system uses an appropriate model to quantify risks - changing factor sensitivities - correlation of risks to view from portfolio perspective - model potential combinations of risks 6. ERM system must have checks and balances - feedback on risk factors - feedback on model itself - identify new risks - evaluate the ability of the model to estimate and quantify risk factors
Name the 7 steps to making a capital expectations forecast
1 Gather Cap mrkt expections 2 Gather historical performance 3 Identify valuation models and rec’s 4 Collect best data (whole much of req’s in there) 5 Use experience and judgement 6 Forumulate expectations 7 Monitor