Managed Future

Below is the one of the correct description for mananged future from Qbank. It is correct? Sounds too good to be true…

“Managed futures have exhibited a positive correlation to equities and bonds during up markets and a negative correlation during falling markets.”

Managed futures tend to be technical trend followers. If the trend is going up, managed futures go long. If the trend is going down, they’re shorting.

It makes sense now. Thank you!

Umm, this is a good observation. The quote means that Managed Futures are always going up. Up when market is up (+ve); and up when market is down (-ve).

Becoming rich is not as difficult as I thought.

You’re conflating correlation of prices with correlation of returns. They’re not (remotely) the same thing.

You’re also misunderstanding correlation: it’s not a relationship of positive to negative; it’s a relationship of above and below their respective means.

There’s a secret sauce quote that reads the same way and does sound misleadingly favorable. Perhaps the key is that they are suggesting merely that certain studies have shown these desirable trends but not that they are the hard and fast rule of investing in managed futures. Agree with your original point though…sounds too good to be true.

-I’m referring to the same bases of the quote; Prices

-I understand correlation very well. I never said it’s a relation between +ve and -ve; Actually whoever thinks so, shouldn’t be in this business. Correlation in simplified language: +ve means both go on the same direction; -ve means they move on the opposite direction. Effects the opportunity cost (beside effects on Standard Deviation, and Probability Distribution Function). I dispute the merits of the original quote.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the growth of Managed Futures in the period from 2000 to 2014:

  • Managed Futures: 148.6%

  • US Stocks: 33.4%

Ladies and gentlemen, behold the Managed Futures’ Bubble