agree that trade is only one factor affecting the economy.
There are massive structural issues right now, zero % interest rates in every investment-grade sovereign country bond except the USA (which is dropping closer and closer to 0…). USA now at $22 trillion deficit , 106% Debt/GDP. china has atleast 3x that amount.
south korea and japan having some relational issues, south korea’s grocery stores in china were hit hard by boycotts after they brought an anti-missile defense system to SK.
brexit , europe car production dropped off a cliff , india car production worst since 1999. Argentina heading for socialist policies (that failed miserably only a few years ago).
Canada dealing w blackface Trudeau, and capped oil production to avoid sales without proper transportation infrastructure.
Wonder what straw will break the camel’s back…I think we are teetering very closely.