Market Bottom

Any thoughts on when we reach a bottom in the market? Lehman fails, Merrill sold, IB liquidity fund set up, etc…

well if the s&p goes to 0, that’s definitely a bottom.

The market will trade off technical developments in the immediate to near term. Everybody is scared about our financial system collapsing these days while economic data is put on the backburner. Economic data will come to the forefront in time, and that’s when the market will go down more. I still expect to see 3 digits on the SPX before this is all done.

bottom = unwind of the toxic securities and written down to zero; revamp of the credit agencies; mortgage market stabilizes; new regulations to stop greed (Dah - probably impossible!)

Technical data?! Credit spreads blowing out while people are pondering the consequences of a LEH liquidation is technical?

With DJIA futures down 300ish on a Sunday night I’d say certainly not now.

i hate pretending to be able to predict this stuff, but feel like i have to chime in. things generally bottom when uncertainty largely gets eroded. bottoms happen quietly, not like this. this is easily the most uncertain time in my relatively brief professional career. we’re at DEFCON 4 here…CDS spreads on US treasury debt indicating the probability of level 5. it’s actually frightening. 300 points, frankly, is nothing. i wouldnt be surprised if the DJIA is down 1,000 points tomorrow.

we’re about… hmm 1/2 way?