has it finally bottomed out folks?
ask me in a year
My market bottom is when everyone else stops trying to call a market bottom.
So you think it will go to zero?
mwvt9 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > So you think it will go to zero? I hope not. We have seen some resistance around 8000. Both times we tested that, it looked like a few buy programs got set off. The old guys up here were joking that those trades were limit orders set back in '99 that people forgot about and just figured they would never go off. “hey guess what, you just picked up GE at 15 and GS at 70… congrats.” Anyway IMO, which is worth about $0.03 right now maybe less, if we test the lows again and then close below 8000, uh look out. If that happens a ST 20% dip from there wouldn’t surprise me. I did see somewhere, some analyst was quoted last night saying something like “if within 45 days of the lows you test it again and end up closing higher it is a very bullish signal.” That is nice and optimistic. Hope that guy is right.
How about 7000. Given we had an average market PE 16 when DJ hit 14000, I would not be surprised if things are priced at 8 PE during a down market so that gets us to 7000. Just a rough measure though…
How would you be measuring your “E” in that case phBOOM?
umm what bottom? i havent heard a single positive news in the past 6 months
Number game: Let’s say E drops by half, P falls by half, we are still at 16, then cut P down again by 50% as fear factor. Bam, we are cooking at 8. Lol, your guess is as good as mine. I am just tossing numbers here.
Most bear markets end the same way. Panic selling, reflexive bounce, period of high vol, then a drawn out, gentle bear market that slowly turns around in a shallow U shape. For what its worth, I think we are due a tradeable multi-week rally to 1100 ish in the s&p. Then next spring we hit the low around 750. By then fundamentals will matter a lot more as the indiscriminate panic selling will be long done. But thats just my view, and I’d be lying if I said I’d put much money where my mouth is.
No, not bottom, too many lose ends…plus we still have the umm the auto industry thing coming…
…and CDS and CC and…
this topic is more appropriate for yahoo forums…
Well, this market is not really trading on fundamentals (we had a thread about that), in part because no one really knows what the fundamentals are right now (or at least how they are changing). That leaves us with a psychological, animal spirits market, that may be better approached through technical analysis methods - at least with the market indexes. I’m not so good with technical analysis… we touched 8000 in the dow twice so maybe it’s a double bottom. I seem to recall that whether the second bottom has more or less volume than the first is relevant. On the other hand, maybe it’s just channeling sideways for a while. There definitely is something to chart reading… I’m not prepared to think it’s all garbage, especially in times like this… I just don’t feel I’m very good at it.
Bear in mind that the bottom will be reached long before the economy turns around, and long before there’s any indication of the economy turning around. Thats the beauty of a forward looking market. But is it here? I dont think so, but who knows?
chicagofx Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Bear in mind that the bottom will be reached long > before the economy turns around, and long before > there’s any indication of the economy turning > around. > > Thats the beauty of a forward looking market. But > is it here? I dont think so, but who knows? That is generally the case although it didn’t happen in the last bear market. The market made a low in the spring of 2003, months after (not before) the general economy picked up.
dunno. Reckon I’ll write some puts just in case tho.
too many people obsessing over bottoms and all - this is a crapshoot market. there may be a structural, permanent change in the works here
rohufish Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > too many people obsessing over bottoms and all - > this is a crapshoot market. > > there may be a structural, permanent change in the > works here Nothing wrong with obssesing over bottoms or market psychologists
lol - nice rounded w shaped bottoms, right?