where is the market headed?
to hell
Looks like it’s forming a wedge over the last 2 weeks! The apex should be sometime next week…
Looks like it’s going up. Then it will go down. Then it will go up again. Then it will go down. Eventually it will go up.
bchadwick, after it eventually goes up, do you think it will go down?
In the very long term, barring nuclear war, the market will trend upwards. This is because technological and process improvements will tend to increase productivity over the long term, and those who are exposed to the market will benefit more from the profitability that creates than those who aren’t. Resource constraints might put a cap on that, so in the very very long term, it could might go down again.
Chad, the increase in productivity has been the result of not only technological and process improvements, but also people working much longer hours. The number of hours in a day cannot expand, so I feel the increase in productivity won’t be as large as it was in the last 20 years.
at this pt, the reward is > risk.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > In the very long term, barring nuclear war, the > market will trend upwards. This is because > technological and process improvements will tend > to increase productivity over the long term, and > those who are exposed to the market will benefit > more from the profitability that creates than > those who aren’t. Resource constraints might put > a cap on that, so in the very very long term, it > could might go down again. So suppose that you said that 100 years ago. Of the biggest 15 stock markets in the world, 4 would go to 0 (of course, WW II was kind of a nuclear war).
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > bchadwick Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > In the very long term, barring nuclear war, the > > market will trend upwards. This is because > > technological and process improvements will > tend > > to increase productivity over the long term, > and > > those who are exposed to the market will > benefit > > more from the profitability that creates than > > those who aren’t. Resource constraints might > put > > a cap on that, so in the very very long term, > it > > could might go down again. > > > So suppose that you said that 100 years ago. Of > the biggest 15 stock markets in the world, 4 would > go to 0 (of course, WW II was kind of a nuclear > war). This is where I’d tell you the CAPM response - you have to own the global market, or you’re not diversified enough. I admit you could tell me in response that CAPM would also ask you to own fixed income, real estate, etc.
Out of curiosity, what major stock markets ever went to 0?
Not 100% sure, but if there were four of them, I’d guess Germany (either in Weimar or after WWII), Japan, Russia (after 1917), and I would have guessed Poland, except that Poland didn’t exist as an independent nation 100 years ago, so maybe Austria-Hungary. Possibly China as well.
"I’d guess Germany (either in Weimar or after WWII), Japan, Russia (after 1917) " Yep…
market is coming back and anyone who say it is not is full of sh** and doesnt believe history holds any value. You think MCD and KO are going out of business? When I see names like KO under 40, Im a kid in a candy shop accumlating assets the way 50 accumulates ice and Angelina adopted babies. This is a great time to buy, and I’ve been saying that way before Warren came out and had to quell the rest of America…buy buy buy, I’ll see you in 24-36 months.
I don’t know what scarier Joey’s bearish outlook or Daj’s bullish?
As always, daj is absolutely correct. He’s calling it again!
I hope Joey is wrong (and over-pessimistic), but it seems a lot more plausible than Daj. Where are the economic fundamentals to support a rapid bounceback? It is possible that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that will jump in and drive prices up when they do, but there needs to be some catalyst to make that happen. The catalyst could be technical (prices appear to have stopped dropping), but it’s more likely that it will be something fundamental - something other than a price signal that indicates the earnings, jobs, and solvency situation isn’t getting worse. I think the fundamentals are going to take a long time to come around… collectively, we just have too many sins to pay off.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I hope Joey is wrong (and over-pessimistic), but > it seems a lot more plausible than Daj. Where are > the economic fundamentals to support a rapid > bounceback? who said anything about rapid? I am 29, I got 35 years to accumulate the dough. I wanna be a pizzaman! > > It is possible that there is a lot of cash on the > sidelines that will jump in and drive prices up > when they do, but there needs to be some catalyst > to make that happen. PMs will feel underinvested once housing turns. The catalyst could be > technical (prices appear to have stopped > dropping), but it’s more likely that it will be > something fundamental - something other than a > price signal that indicates the earnings, jobs, > and solvency situation isn’t getting worse. > > I think the fundamentals are going to take a long > time to come around… collectively, we just have > too many sins to pay off. Our father who art in heaven…
How about credit card crisis? It might be even worse than subprime. I will see you in 6 months when market tanks to below 7000.
APM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > How about credit card crisis? It might be even > worse than subprime. > > I will see you in 6 months when market tanks to > below 7000. dude, thats priced in, most of it. We read about AXP and thier woes last qtr. 7000 handle, ha ha!