That’s what the smart people are saying. I have no idea. It sounds reasonable because housing and shut. Thoughts?
Perfect timing for all the treasuries we’re buying
7.7% YoY CPI doesn’t look promising to me. Target rate increases may slow from 75 bps, but having to go higher than 4.5% to reign in inflation means a relative (compared to historic rates) squeeze on growth. I see 2 scenarios:
-
Inflation continues to slow, rate increases top out less than 5%, markets display irrational exuberance and start popping back up at the beginning or middle of 2Q 23.
-
Inflation picks up steam in 4Q 22, Fed presidents indicate 6-6.5% target by end of 2023, Wall Street commits suicide by autoerotic asphyxiation.
My brain tells me #2 is more likely, but the markets followed their hearts instead of their brains throughout the middle and end of the pandemic.
hope yall loaded up. still time
Recession is supposed to be incoming eta q3-4 due to housing ■■■■ and interest rates. Thoughts?
Haha I’m so levered. I have 135k in student loan debts. And have 100k in cash. I’m also transitioning my index to individual stocks. So my individual stock positions are shifting from 30% of nw to 80% nw. And another 20% pe.
1 Like
that’s very confident of you. But have you considered going all in on naked otm leverages options?
Is it too soon to ask how your SVB is doing?
Haha I had 8k. It crashed to 3k before they halted. I’m not going to sell it until 2 years. I’m still beating the market though since 9/13 by a lot. Like 8%.
We are under an inverted curve scenario for months already, but recession feels far away, not only in USA, but in EU and UK. Inflation has receded in a linear trend and this “financial turmoil” looks contained with liquidity programs. Some specialists are telling that the financial market is not under a scenario of solvency risk, so contangion from SVB, FRC, Silvergate and Signature shouldn’t give much problem, for now. Interest rates expectations have changed dramatically:
The problem is that if FED reduces the rate some time soon before a controlled inflation (2%), the markets will TANK horribly. Why? Because it would be a strong signal the FED knows we are in big trouble 
I expect rates rising for some time in slower paces until 5.5% at least or when inflation reaches 3%.
Suissetemic risk everywhere in the banking sector lately.
Pretty obvious what’s coming…
Here are the facts…
-
Unemployment rate at historical lows (hint: this is not the case at the start of a new bull market)
-
LEI’s strongly pointing towards recession
-
Inverted yield curve (10-3M) since Oct’22
-
Bear steepening recently in 10-2
-
Inflation still at 6%+, which says current futures pricing of cuts starting in June/July is either highly unlikely or signaling a breakage of something in the system
Talks of a soft/no landing are laughable. Anyone believing in this outcome is either ignorant of financial markets history or being willfully misleading. Have a great weekend all!
hope everyone is enjoying their copacetic profits
Michael Burry was “sorry” about telling investors to sell everything. Is he trolling or we really could get through the fog and achieve ATHs again when inflation comes back to 2%?
For me, it is 50-50 so far, balanced uncertainty.
Burry is just another fooled by randomness victim imo. You either die a hero, or a false market timing prophet.
Ya, the guy spots cracks in the system (which are probably true), but somehow he denies the fact that the rest of the people work and fight to thrive, not to fall, so the FED, the Gov, the companies, the regulators, etc will do anything possible to patch the mistakes giving the system some more time, enough time to make all your doom predictions to rot.
Never respect shorts. It doesn’t make economic sense to do it. Name one famous short only fund. Exactly.
god bless
1 Like