Anyone care to take a stab where all this recent unrest in the middle east is going to lead? I have no idea myself, but I will go out on a limb and say that it WILL NOT lead to the happy liberal western style secular democracies a la twitter revolutions that liberal policy makers in the US seem to think they are witnessing on Anderson Pooper 360. I mean, it could, but that seems rather unlikely. This situation looks scary to me, scarier then anything I can remember seeing. Ultimately, I’m thinking this will lead to a Sunni vs Shiite showdown.
Sunshine is the best disinfectant.
Well, given that the governments were uprooted by grassroots-style movements and not military force, it doesn’t seem like a new generation of Saddam and Gadaffi is about to arise. Of course, this isn’t to say that it will be all sunshine and rainbows in the end. More likely, it will be something like India, where there is a framework for democracy, but actual democracy is hampered by corruption.
I think NYSSA did an article on this a while back: http://post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html
ChickenTikka Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Anyone care to take a stab where all this recent > unrest in the middle east is going to lead? > > I have no idea myself, but I will go out on a limb > and say that it WILL NOT lead to the happy liberal > western style secular democracies a la twitter > revolutions that liberal policy makers in the US > seem to think they are witnessing on Anderson > Pooper 360. I mean, it could, but that seems > rather unlikely. > > This situation looks scary to me, scarier then > anything I can remember seeing. > > Ultimately, I’m thinking this will lead to a Sunni > vs Shiite showdown. i agree it is scary and unkonwn
I think it is primarily an emerging power vacuum due to declining American influence in the region. Perhaps useful models to think about would be how have the former Soviet Bloc states reacted with Soviet withdrawal. I think it’s a mistake to interpret these political changes through the lenses of implementing democracy. Implementing democracy isn’t a magical finish line for nations as some would believe.
I think no one can predict what is the outcome will be, the whole situation is new to everyone, but the people are very hopeful of the future in Tunis, Egypt and Libya.
I agree with Palantir. I have nothing significant of my own to add, I just wanted to say that I agree.