We have discussed alot regarding MPS and the policy of CFA Institute regarding MPS but could not come up with something concrete. Now its turn to think, what we think of , what MPS should be, keeping in view our past educational systems. I am sure that with such a huge diversity of people, we will have nice ideas. 240 Questions in all. Top 1% candiates’ average= 95% (227 answers correct approximately) I have studied in Grade point average system (probably American) and can safely say that a grade C is (which is minimum passing grade in my university) was around 3/4th of the maximum marks attained in the exam. So it would be :- 3/4th of 227=170 correct answers. Now the assumption is that, every one has attepmpted all questions which is quite a fair assumption. No one is supposed to leave any question unanswered. So consider the case of a person who is sure about half of his answers as correct. He is already at 120. Remaining questions = 120. Lets assume that he answers randomly regarding those 120 questions then in a big population size, an average candidate will be able to answer on average 40 questions correct. So 120+40=160 . Conclusion:- If you are sure about more than half of your answers as correct, then you will not be too wrong to assume that you will pass.
Must be awesome to have the luxury of excessive drinking on Wednesday mornings.
mcpass Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Must be awesome to have the luxury of excessive > drinking on Wednesday mornings. +1! thats mighty ambitious, dude. but u never know, maybe u guessed well on the other 50% that u didnt know. the 3 choices increases your chances of a correct guess by quite a lot. however this increase in likelihhood of a correct guess will most likely increase the MPS therefore negating your chances of success by guessing.
Only if this was so was so easy…Alaaaaaas its not. If 50% of guesses are correct, MPS is going too high.
Agreed, key point being that must be ABSOLUTELY SURE about those 120 questions, not educated guessing not even a slight doubt - then you’re in good shape. There are many questions that people think they know how to solve but still pick the wrong answer… those are the killer questions 'cause you would have had a better expected value if you just guessed.
90% of those you “knew” and 40% of those you didn’t seems about right. This accounts for the intelligent guess and often 50-50 nature of the unsure answers, and also the silly mistakes, pencil slips, and misplaced arrogance for the “certain” ones. Assuming an MPS of 73% - it’s quite likely to be higher than in previous years given the three-choice format - to pass you need to be “sure” of 66% of the questions, or 158.4 of the 240. So if you found yourself unsure of 40+ questions per paper you might be in trouble. Hope I’m wrong and the MPS is 68%, but…