What do you guys think?
Say What? In 30-Year Race, Bonds Beat Stocks
The biggest bond gains in almost a decade have pushed returns on Treasuries above stocks over the past 30 years, the first time that’s happened since before the Civil War…
I read the article yesterday. Equities also had a lost decade. That makes me even more confident that equities will outperform the next decades. Bond yields went from double digits to almost 0 in the last 30 years. Unless you think we are facing a Japan type situation, the next 30 years for bonds aren’t promising.
Yes, but we may be facing a japan type situation. Where we are at now that is a reasonable concern.
These reports are always so time period specific. For example, the article cites that LT US bonds gained 11.5% per year over the past 3 decades and that the S&P gained just 10.8%. Okay, but LT US bonds are up almost 23% YTD (15% in the last 3 months) and the S&P is up just 1.3% (-2.5% in the last 3 months). So, much of this annualized 70 basis point spread between the two assets over the “past 3 decades” actually is a result of the past 3 or 10 months. Edit: But, I do agree that Mededith Whitney is a perma bear who is given too much credit for skill…anyone heard from Noriel Roubini lately? ZH readers and writers, you have to change your stance at some point to be given credit for skill.
MW’s time is up. She’s the financial professional equivalent of a Kardashian. Not sure what you mean with your ZH statement. They have a well defined thesis on the current market environment (unsustainable debt, USD hegemony collapsing, fiat going to zero, serious bank problems, etc.). I would imagine when those conditions change, they’ll change their outlook accordingly. Interestingly, the trading ideas that come out of ZH are almost always on the long side. They don’t really short too often unless it’s a pair trade.
MV is not nearly as hot as the Kardashians nor has her plays panned out aside from her famous call. I call MV was trying to start a credit rating agency. funny how that never materialized.
@sweeep the leg, I do read zero hedge and check it nearly daily, but I think they are almost religious in their view of the coming financial apocalypse. I don’t have time to write much now and obviously their contributors are largely anonymous, but consider one contributor (previously purported to be the founder) Mr. Daniel Ivandjiiski who was fired for insider trading from his hedge fund job run by an ex-Goldman trader. Clearly, there is a personal axe to grind there that affects any type of dispassionate analysis. I think anger can lead to good reporting, but that the reporting tends to be a little one-sided. For detail: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge http://nymag.com/guides/money/2009/59457/index1.html
Yes, there’s clearly an anti-GS sentiment at ZH. But, there are a couple dozen contributers now, so I don’t really worry too much about it. ZH is just one place for news, not the only place.