It has been suggested that in US$ terms the GDP of the BRIC economies could exceed that of the G6 economies by which of the following years? Possible answers: A: 2039 B: 2045 C: 2048
A
Never – I’d say that even if there wasn’t that option, and let me clarify, I come from an emerging economy.
this is total GDP, just because of the population it is possible, per capita, it is different story,
not sure. the notes i made just say within 40 years. so i’ll take a guess at C. agree with pfcfaataf that on a per capita basis, emerging economies aren’t expected to catch up anytime soon.
This is so 2039 … or not
The text was written in 2003. So 40 years from ‘now’ is 2003+40 = 2043.
A
this would never be a question on the exam -
mcap11 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > this would never be a question on the exam - Famous last words
A
Highly doubt they would ask about specific years for BRICs. More likely they would ask something like which factors contribute most to the growth of the BRICs countries.
Picking any one will make me feel falling into a overconfidence trap.
Lao Tzu, a 6th-century BC poet observed, “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge.” Despite these age-old words of wisdom our industry seems to persist in producing and using forecasts. This is all the more puzzling given the easily available data on the appalling nature of track records in forecasting. Economists, strategists and analysts are all guilty. In general, forecasts seem to be a lagged function of actual outcomes—adaptive expectations dominate forecasts. – from L3 book.
“We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know—and those who don’t know they don’t know.” J. K. Galbraith – From the interweb