MPS guesses...Meanderings

Given the carnage in the morning what do people think the MPS will be… It seems that this year was unique in the sense that morning was a raging/outright disaster and the afternoon was a cake walk. Am I right? Or was it just me.

dude you are two months late for this discussion…check the previous posts…am now nauseous on this topic and am quite sure so are others

A lot of blood got mopped up after the AM session. I slipped and fell in some of it on the way out. If you walked out of that with 50-55%, that is pretty good. The PM session was more doable. Those who really studied should get at least 65%. I think there is going to be a large group of test takers right around 57-63%. Depending on where CFAI puts the cutoff, there will either be a lot of passers (MPS of 53-4%) or a lot of failers (MPS of 65%)

I’m still sticking with my MPS estimate of 63% (simply 70% of the top 10% of scores). However I do believe if the bar is set at this level, you will be looking at a lower pass rate than last year.

The morning session was very tough, but I don’t think it’s so out of the ordinary compared to the previous years, to be honest. The 2007 morning session was ridiculously long, I think it was even longer than the 2008 exam. Hate to say it, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing such a big curve because a lot of people didn’t do well in the morning. I don’t think the MPS will be below 60%.

The 2007 AM session was also a bloodbath. I wouldn’t say that this year’s session was “unique.” Some people have written that they took the 2007 test at home and found it easier than 2008. I am pretty sure that has more to do with the environment or whether they peaked at answers, etc. If anything, last year’s test stood out. If you looked at the scores posted last year, I don’t remember seeing anyone who got above 70% on the first IPS question. I remember seeing about 2 with 50-70% and everyone else was below 50%. Personally I am expecting a pass rate at 50-55%–basically the same as last year but with a slight uptick to account for a massive number of retakers. Admittedly, this is giving CFA more credit than they deserve for having control of the passing rate, which has swung by ca. 25 percentage points from year to year the last three years. Call it anchoring.

I think that one of two situations will occur: * The MPS will be below 60%, OR * The % passing will be below 40%.

There is always the concern…that I was the only clown in the parade

any other thoughts…could it be 70% mps

Apollo22 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > could it be 70% mps No. That much, I am sure of. If the MPS is 70%, the pass rate is going to be less than 20%.

I passed LIII last year and I can tell you that MPS this year will be below 60%. Pass rate will be better than last year. I am guessing 55-60%.

CFA Fun Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I passed LIII last year and I can tell you that > MPS this year will be below 60%. Pass rate will be > better than last year. I am guessing 55-60%. I am going to be that guy: How do you know this? If you passed last year, how do you know about this year’s exam?

While no one know the exact MPS, an educated guess is that MPS in recent years has been below 60% (or else there would be a lot more failures). Last year the pass rate was lowest at 50% and I was quite lucky to get through. It will be higher than that this year. 2004: 64%, 2005: 55%, 2006: 76%, 2007: 50% See the trend? Also a lot of people were retakers, so pass rate is gonna be higher than 50%!

I got 66%…what is the MPS Iin your view.

Apollo22 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I got 66%…what is the MPS Iin your view. Are you kidding, then the pass rate is sub 30%…

MPS will be below 60. My guess is 55-58.