Won’t exist at this time next week.
what odds are you giving on this? though you’re probably right
you better hope it exists - this is no lehman
why??? nakedputs, i repsect your opinion and have enjoyedyour posts. Do you have any new info or just all the news from Friday. I personally cant see how this deal gets done @ such dilution!! wouldnt a breakup make more sense?
if nothing is done, i agree… but my guess is it’s saved by government
looks like the latest news is a treasury bailout…theyll inject whatever residual money MS needs. what a crock of BS this is. Some firms are being cherry picked to live, others let to die. TAKEAWAY here: Goldman has to be down on monday
no bank wil fail anymore…the government will pay…hmm well the taxpayers
I will view an AIG style bailout as validation of my prediction daj, this is based upon conversations with people I had on Friday. Major liquidity problems at MS.
ok, but for MS: what are your contacts saying - that MS is another AIG!!?!??!?!
NakedPuts Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I will view an AIG style bailout as validation of > my prediction > > daj, this is based upon conversations with people > I had on Friday. Major liquidity problems at MS. i think that’s a fair validation. and i think you have good chance of being correct.
The new ticker will be MSGOV.
equity_analyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The new ticker will be MSGOV. I think MSR.I.P. is nicer
* HEARD ON THE STREET * OCTOBER 11, 2008 A Lot Is Riding on Morgan Stanley By PETER EAVIS * When it comes to Morgan Stanley’s battered stock, bulls and bears both make plausible arguments. But it’s hard to justify the distressed price on the bank’s credit-default swaps – financial contracts that allow investors to buy protection against a debt default. The cost of protecting against a Morgan Stanley default has soared since the middle of last month, indicating some investors think it will struggle to pay back creditors. [False Alarm chart] On the face of it, that’s understandable. With Morgan Stanley stock down nearly 60% in the past week, the market is braced for the direst of outcomes. But the government almost certainly wouldn’t tolerate a Morgan Stanley default, given that the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy helped to trigger this latest, grimmest phase of the credit crisis. Sure, the public might not like another big Wall Street bailout. But Morgan Stanley appears to have behaved responsibly next to, say, American International Group, whose dangerous bets prompted a crisis that led to the government giving it loans of over $70 billion. Then there’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s commitment to invest $9 billion in Morgan Stanley, a deal that’s scheduled to close Tuesday. That sum may not be enough to steady Morgan Stanley in itself. But, again, the government has every incentive to make that work. Morgan Stanley’s shares could continue to get crushed. But it looks excessive for investors to part with $2.4 million upfront, on top of annual payments, to insure $10 million of the firm’s debt for five years. After all the blank checks signed in recent days by governments around the world to stabilize the banking system, the U.S. looks unlikely to let another bomb go off on Wall Street. Copyright ©2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
If MS went down AIG-style, won’t the Japanese get screwed again?
forget about MS, guys. SOV just got acquired. Boston banking has a new face, AGAIN!!!
daj224 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > * HEARD ON THE STREET > * OCTOBER 11, 2008 > > A Lot Is Riding on Morgan Stanley > By PETER EAVIS > > * > > When it comes to Morgan Stanley’s battered stock, > bulls and bears both make plausible arguments. But > it’s hard to justify the distressed price on the > bank’s credit-default swaps – financial contracts > that allow investors to buy protection against a > debt default. > > The cost of protecting against a Morgan Stanley > default has soared since the middle of last month, > indicating some investors think it will struggle > to pay back creditors. > > > On the face of it, that’s understandable. With > Morgan Stanley stock down nearly 60% in the past > week, the market is braced for the direst of > outcomes. But the government almost certainly > wouldn’t tolerate a Morgan Stanley default, given > that the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy helped to > trigger this latest, grimmest phase of the credit > crisis. > > Sure, the public might not like another big Wall > Street bailout. But Morgan Stanley appears to have > behaved responsibly next to, say, American > International Group, whose dangerous bets prompted > a crisis that led to the government giving it > loans of over $70 billion. > > Then there’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s > commitment to invest $9 billion in Morgan Stanley, > a deal that’s scheduled to close Tuesday. That sum > may not be enough to steady Morgan Stanley in > itself. But, again, the government has every > incentive to make that work. > > Morgan Stanley’s shares could continue to get > crushed. But it looks excessive for investors to > part with $2.4 million upfront, on top of annual > payments, to insure $10 million of the firm’s debt > for five years. After all the blank checks signed > in recent days by governments around the world to > stabilize the banking system, the U.S. looks > unlikely to let another bomb go off on Wall > Street. > > Copyright ©2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All > Rights Reserved Oh man - the WSJ loves to say this as well - “could continue to get crushed.”
yup, I can be even more professional: The probability that Morgan Stanley’s shares continue to get crushed is 70%.
nice call
Looks like the deal closed . . .