My hypothesison passing rates

CFA Level III
#1

I always have these hypotheses that:

  1. the passing rate of level II for a level I writer in December and taking the Level II in the following June is higher than that for if it was a level I writer in June and taking the level II in the following June.

  2. if somehow CFAI makes the time intervals between levels to be 6 months rather than 1 year of now, the passing rate without any change/adjustment on the grading curve by CFAI, will be higher.

I know these are impossible to prove with facts but maybe with opinions:)

#2

Well FRMer, I hope you are correct :slight_smile: I took L1 this December and just sat for L2.

The upside - most of the L1 stuff was still pretty fresh in my mind;

The downside:

(1) Far less time

(2) Serious burnout towards the end as you have the CFA pressure for 8 straight months AND since there is little time, you afford yourself little “downtime”, which leads to my third con

(3) Family/personal life balance disappears

But heck, maybe that makes Dec/June candidates more motivated

I’d love for CFAI to publish statistics, but I won’t be holding my breath on that one …

#3

I wish they offered all three levels twice a year (at least)… it kinda sucks to wait a whole year if one fails…

#4

My hepothesis is based on a few thoughts as laid out below:

  1. Less than 6-month of waiting still gives you the passion and desire to finish the exams (desire to be in the game);

  2. Reduce any possible “noise”, including unknown events such as new baby or family member situation (reduce the volatility caused by the theta)

  3. Memory may still be consistent, so it would be much easier to leverage on the previous level knowledge you built in your brain and hasn’t waned;

  4. Get at least one more springs back.

#5

I agree. Instead of offering Level I twice, they should offer Level III twice a year.

#6

Now from a charterholder’s perspective, it is certainly not in his interest to increase the frequency of exams just so he can keep his competitive advantages or barrier to entry into the fields. But to be honest, as a charterholder myself, I don’t see any problem allowing more exams to be written,because a) the number of charterholder is not directly linked to that of exam takers; b) charterholder already possesses the good job qualification for them to build further advantages over new entrants - a competitive relationship, even if there exists, could be good for investment industry as a whole.