I’ve been calling SPX to hit 3-digits. I am now predicting that SPX will reach 2002 lows at a minimum. SPX at 400-500 is not out of the realm of possibility. Looking at technical analysis indicators, this bear market is shaping up to be the mother as the bear market of early this decade was the bastard son. The macro fundamentals are orders of magnitude worse than they were early this decade. The Fed and Treasury is out of bullets. I think they are powerless to the supreme deflationary forces that are engulfing the world economy. Their attempts to put stability in asset prices will continue to result in failure. No bailouts/rescues/conservatorships etc can overpower supply/demand disequilibrium. I may be getting bold in my prediction, but the knowledge I gained about the housing and securitization markets over the past 2+ years has served me well and brought me profits. I am confident I know exactly what’s going on in credit markets and my macro fundamental, credit market, and technical analysis lead me to believe that we are in unknown territory here and asset prices and debt levels have to fall.
I hate to spoil your bold prediction (the one that I have heard over and over), but the above is generally a typical sign of capitulation. When fear and abandonment of hope engulfs the market, it’s the bottom. Read the above again. But wait, “this time it’s different.”
wow…you are right…that is a VERY bold prediction! Agreed that the fundamentals have not looked worse in decades…but isnt the question how much of that is already priced in to the market? With a 35% drop…I would think a fair bit of the slowdown would be priced in already…
Bosybillups… calling a bottom and an actual bottom are two different things… Remember the market can be a ponzi scheme. Common shares are being diluted, dividend cuts… VALUE is NOT THERE
I don’t think the fundamentals are priced in yet, as analysts have not lowered earnings expectations for Q4, and much of 2009. Needless to say, we’ll see some revisions ahead. Pros that we have further to go: - Credit markets still frozen, and it’s self-feeding into more pain each day; - Credit is contracting; businesses are too - No growth catalyst to get us out; - Consumers are no-longer resilient… will not spend or borrow like the old days - Unemployment is trending up, and looks like ti can head towards 8+% - deflationary spiral will eventually be met with inflationary spiral Cons that we have further down to go: - sentiment is at all time lows - markets are at very oversold conditions - I’ve heard “depression” a lot more than “recession” - USD gaining strength, as EM and Eur deterioriate - safe haven US still in tact - CRAMER IS BEARISH NOW (after calling 5 market bottoms) So which side wins?
Ptrainer, you’re being overly pessimistic. I’m attaching a list of 200+ stocks that are buying back shares so fast that, on average, they won’t exist too much longer. These stocks have bought back shares every year for the last 6 years. Never skipping. They will disappear soon so you better buy them. When they buy when the market swoons it is even better for them (and the remaining few shareholders). Or, another way of looking at it, if the S&P drops by as many points as it dropped today, everyday going forward … it will completely cease to exist in just 19 days. Gone. Are those assets that bad? Are the fundamentals that bad? Will the S&P be gone in a month? The world is getting a little pessimistic. I went to the grocery store and there was still plenty of food on the shelves. I’m not a technician but the market has gone parabolic downwards (just like oil went parabolic upwards, just like dotcom went parabolic upwards, etc. etc.). I’m going out on a limb and saying, “the end of the world will not be within the next 60 days.” Stocks that will cease to exist… name, ticker, years left: Comdisco Holdings Company, Inc CDCO 5 Asia Tigers Fund, Inc., The GRR 6 Chester Bancorp, Inc. CNBA 6 CBS Corporation CBS 7 CBRL Group, Inc. CBRL 8 DST Systems, Inc. DST 8 Energizer Holdings, Inc. ENR 11 AutoNation, Inc. AN 11 Zale Corporation ZLC 13 Continental Info. Systems CISC 13 AutoZone, Inc. AZO 13 Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. PPD 13 Lexington B & L Financial Corp LXMO 13 SPX Corporation SPW 13 High Country Bancorp, Inc. HCBC 13 CBIZ, Inc. CBZ 14 CIGNA Corporation CI 14 IMS Health, Inc. RX 14 WSFS Financial Corporation WSFS 14 Bank Mutual Corporation BKMU 15 National Semiconductor Corpora NSM 15 Birner Dental Mgmt. Services BDMS 15 Credit Acceptance Corp. CACC 15 Core Laboratories N.V. CLB 15 Bank of Hawaii Corporation BOH 15 Brinker International, Inc. EAT 15 Vestin Realty Mortgage I Inc. VRTA 15 Jefferson Bancshares, Inc. JFBI 16 Astoria Financial Corporation AF 16 Linear Technology Corporation LLTC 16 Borders Group, Inc. BGP 17 Papa John’s Int’l, Inc. PZZA 17 Ziegler Companies, Inc., The ZGCO 17 CEC Entertainment, Inc. CEC 17 Telefonos de Mexico, S.A. (ADR TMX 18 NVR, Inc. NVR 18 Affiliated Computer Services, ACS 18 MutualFirst Financial, Inc. MFSF 18 Swisscom AG (ADR) SCMWY 18 Masco Corporation MAS 19 CSG Systems International, Inc CSGS 19 Republic Services, Inc. RSG 19 Waters Corporation WAT 20 Great American Bancorp GTPS 20 TESSCO Technologies, Inc. TESS 21 Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. ETH 21 RadioShack Corporation RSH 21 SVB Financial Group SIVB 21 Wayne Savings Bancshares, Inc WAYN 21 Winnebago Industries, Inc. WGO 21 Lincare Holdings Inc. LNCR 21 Marriott International, Inc. MAR 21 Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, DNB 21 Harte-Hanks, Inc. HHS 21 Torchmark Corporation TMK 21 MGIC Investment Corp. MTG 21 Home Depot, Inc., The HD 22 Polaris Industries Inc. PII 22 Sturgis Bancorp, Inc. STBI 22 Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. NUS 22 HNI Corporation HNI 22 Autoliv Inc. ALV 22 Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU 23 Herman Miller, Inc. MLHR 23 Ryland Group, Inc., The RYL 23 Circuit City Stores, Inc. CC 23 UBS AG (USA) UBS 23 Intuit Inc. INTU 23 Pepsi Bottling Group, Inc., Th PBG 23 Utah Medical Products, Inc. UTMD 23 Methanex Corporation (USA) MEOH 24 Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH 24 MAXXAM Inc. MXM 24 Fog Cutter Capital Group Inc. FCCG 24 Arctic Cat Inc. ACAT 24 Dover Downs Gaming & Entertain DDE 24 Indiana Community Bancorp INCB 25 Progressive Corporation, The PGR 25 Toro Company, The TTC 25 Family Dollar Stores, Inc. FDO 25 Lancaster Colony Corp. LANC 25 Camden National Corporation CAC 25 Imperial Oil Limited (USA) IMO 25 Rome Bancorp, Inc. ROME 25 Timberland Company, The TBL 26 Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN 26 BMC Software, Inc. BMC 26 North Central Bancshares, Inc. FFFD 26 Tyler Technologies, Inc. TYL 26 Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI 26 Diageo plc (ADR) DEO 26 Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG 27 Convergys Corporation CVG 27 Pactiv Corporation PTV 27 Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 27 Applied Biosystems Inc. ABI 27 Tri-Continental Corporation TY 27 Micrel, Incorporated MCRL 28 Morgan Stanley Income Securiti ICB 28 Jack in the Box Inc. JBX 28 TJX Companies, Inc., The TJX 28 Commerce Bancshares, Inc. CBSH 28 PepsiAmericas, Inc. PAS 28 Estee Lauder Companies Inc., T EL 28 Blyth, Inc. BTH 28 Brookfield Homes Corporation BHS 28 First Federal Bankshares, Inc. FFSX 28 Kent Financial Services, Inc. KENT 29 Express Scripts, Inc. ESRX 29 BASF SE (ADR) BASFY 29 Hershey Company, The HSY 29 Allstate Corporation, The ALL 29 Portugal Telecom, SGPS (ADR) PT 29 First Financial Bancorp FFBC 29 Pinnacle Bancshares, Inc. PCLB 29 Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 29 First BancTrust Corporation FBTC 30 First Mid-Illinois Bancshares, FMBH 30 Waste Management, Inc. WMI 30 Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. HCBK 30 MBT Financial Corp. MBTF 30 Radian Group Inc. RDN 30 Sherwin-Williams Company SHW 30 Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 31 PrimeEnergy Corporation PNRG 31 Suffolk Bancorp SUBK 31 Electrolux AB (ADR) ELUXY 31 Canadian National Railway (USA CNI 31 TCF Financial Corporation TCB 32 Renaissance Learning, Inc. RLRN 32 Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB 32 Central Bancorp, Inc. CEBK 32 BP plc (ADR) BP 33 Talisman Energy Inc. (USA) TLM 33 WVS Financial Corp. WVFC 33 Nippon Telegraph & Telephone C NTT 34 Dell Inc. DELL 34 CorVel Corporation CRVL 34 Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. BUD 34 AstraZeneca plc (ADR) AZN 34 NTT DoCoMo, Inc. (ADR) DCM 35 TOTAL S.A. (ADR) TOT 35 Ross Stores, Inc. ROST 35 MBIA Inc. MBI 35 FFW Corporation FFWC 35 InterGroup Corporation, The INTG 36 Team Financial, Inc. TFIN 36 Automatic Data Processing ADP 36 Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW 36 Groupe Danone SA (ADR) GDNNY 37 McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., T MHP 37 Anchor BanCorp Wisconsin Inc. ABCW 38 Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. (A TKOMY 39 Wireless Xcessories Group, Inc WIRX 39 Dionex Corporation DNEX 39 First Financial Service Corp. FFKY 40 StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. SFG 40 Learning Tree International, I LTRE 40 Westfield Financial, Inc. WFD 40 Yum! Brands, Inc. YUM 40 LandAmerica Financial Group, I LFG 41 Kroger Co., The KR 42 America Movil S.A.B de C.V. (A AMX 42 American Express Company AXP 43 UnionBanCal Corporation UB 43 Northeast Bancorp/ME NBN 44 Lawson Products, Inc. LAWS 44 First Financial Holdings, Inc. FFCH 44 Speedus Corp. SPDE 45 Universal Health Services, Inc UHS 45 Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) TM 45 First Northern Community Banco FNRN 46 Air T, Inc. AIRT 46 Scope Industries SCPJ 46 W.W. Grainger, Inc. GWW 46 DCB Financial Corp. DCBF 47 Valassis Communications, Inc. VCI 47 Pool Corporation POOL 47 Sigma-Aldrich Corporation SIAL 47 Texas Pacific Land Trust TPL 47 Federated Investors, Inc. FII 47 Ball Corporation BLL 47 Eaton Vance Corp. EV 48 Altera Corporation ALTR 48 La-Z-Boy Incorporated LZB 49 OceanFirst Financial Corp., In OCFC 49 Leggett & Platt, Inc. LEG 49 Mediacom Communications Corpor MCCC 49 First Independence Corp. /DE/ FFSL 49 First of Long Island Corporati FLIC 50 Pitney Bowes Inc. PBI 51 SEI Investments Company SEIC 51 Horizon Financial Corp HRZB 52 Comm Bancorp, Inc. CCBP 53 Kraft Foods Inc. KFT 53 Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) NVO 54 Northeast Indiana Bancorp NIDB 54 Rockwell Collins, Inc. COL 55 Peoples Bancorp PBNI 56 Graco Inc. GGG 57 Telkom SA Limited (ADR) TKG 57 Chemung Financial Corp. CHMG 58 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. WMT 59 Liberty Homes, Inc. LIBHA 60 KeyCorp KEY 62 Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. TR 62 Croghan Bancshares, Inc. CHBH 62 First National Corporation FXNC 62 Dime Community Bancshares, Inc DCOM 63 LCNB Corp. LCNB 63 First Citizens Bancorporation, FCBN 64 PepsiCo, Inc. PEP 64 McCormick & Company, Incorpora MKC 66 POSCO (ADR) PKX 67 Dillard’s, Inc. DDS 67 Goldfield Corporation, The GV 68 Medtronic, Inc. MDT 69 Old National Bancorp ONB 71 SYSCO Corporation SYY 71 Holobeam, Inc. HOOB 71 Ocwen Financial Corporation OCN 72 Coca-Cola Company, The KO 73 Wilber Corporation, The GIW 74 GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) GSK 74 HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (ADR) HMC 75 UST Inc. UST 75 NIKE, Inc. NKE 77 Altex Industries, Inc. ALTX 80 Kubota Corporation (ADR) KUB 82 Molex Incorporated MOLX 82 Colgate-Palmolive Company CL 83 AFLAC Incorporated AFL 85 Citizens Financial Corp./DE/ CIWV 86 Bar Harbor Bankshares BHB 88 Wal-mart de Mexico S A B de C WMMVY 88 UMB Financial Corporation UMBF 89 Royal Bank of Canada (USA) RY 92 United Security Bancshares Inc USBI 94 Becton, Dickinson and Co. BDX 97 New York Times Company, The NYT 97 Wacoal Holdings Corporation (A WACLY 98 Bridgford Foods Corporation BRID 99 Farmers & Merchants Bancorp FMCB 104 Northern States Financial Corp NSFC 108 Cincinnati Financial Corporati CINF 112 Citizens Financial Services, I CZFS 113 Norsk Hydro ASA (ADR) NHYDY 124 Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 128 Liquidation World Inc. (USA) LIQWF 141 First Financial Corporation THFF 143 Walgreen Company WAG 148 Shiseido Co. LTD. (ADR) SSDOY 175 Penns Woods Bancorp, Inc. PWOD 180 Daily Journal Corporation DJCO 185 Pioneer Railcorp PRRR 191 Kirin Holdings Company, Limite KNBWY 208 Peoples Financial Corporation PFBX 253 Tufco Technologies, Inc. TFCO 255 AVX Corporation AVX 306 Kansas City Life Insurance Com KCLI 373 Weis Markets, Inc. WMK 646 SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. (ADR) SANYY 940 Bowl America Incorporated BWL.A 2575
So the cost of equity is getting too high for these stocks and as they see themselves as undervalued, they have no choice but to buy back (and keep buying back) their shares, and eventually they will go private, or their share price will not plummet due to the market taking back their shares or their management realizing the real value and buying back all the shares? - is that what this chart means?
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don’t think the fundamentals are priced in yet, > as analysts have not lowered earnings expectations > for Q4, and much of 2009. Needless to say, we’ll > see some revisions ahead. Just because analysts didn’t adjust their forecasts doesn’t mean that investors and traders haven’t sold or shorted based on expectations of worse than expected earnings. I believe that the stock market is a leading indicator and that a lot of bad news is already priced in.
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I hate to spoil your bold prediction (the one that > I have heard over and over), but the above is > generally a typical sign of capitulation. When > fear and abandonment of hope engulfs the market, > it’s the bottom. Read the above again. > > But wait, “this time it’s different.” I love arguments like this. You even acknowledge in your subsequent post just a few of the MANY indicators/metrics that are at or near their all-time worst showings, and yet you dismiss them casually. People like you are saying that everyone is irrational for proclaiming that the sky is falling, but you see, all these worried masses have all of these indicators pointing in support of THEIR argument. All you have in response is this dismissive, even condescending, attitude. Your only justification that we are near the bottom is the very fact that people are so concerned. Really, that’s it? I find this fascinating. The uninformed public (in which I include Jim Cramer) is panicky, while seemingly the majority of those with financial backgrounds are predicting the worst is behind us. Yet the latter have nothing to point to except a mere hunch that this is “just another recession,” while the former have virtually everything pointing in their favor (Fed having few tools left at its disposal, TED spread through the roof, LIBOR still high, Dow and S&P continuing to plummet, bailout weeks away from being implemented, state governments now looking for bailouts, crisis literally only just beginning in Europe, etc. etc.). Seriously, besides your hunch/feeling/gut, can you point to even ONE thing that would definitively suggest that we are approaching or at the bottom? Besides possibly the VIX (which dropped yesterday, although I’m not sure what it did today), it seems to me like NOTHING has changed for the better.
Well the Bush plan for facism is well on it way… the so called “whackjobs” like Ron Paul and Alex Jones may end up being dead on.
Have a look at this… Source CNBC: This market is now a bear-within-a-bear: The S&P 500 have given up 20 percent since Sept. 1, 2008. To paraphrase the Beatles, about 30 S&P stocks are “half the stock I used to be”: down by 50 percent or more. 160 stocks have lost more than 25 percent month-to-date 325 stocks are at 52-week lows 25 stocks are at ALL-TIME lows 17 stocks have share prices less than $5 Only 15 stocks are up month-to-date And shares are continuing to fall…
Funny thing is, I agree that there is a lot of pain and chain reactions to go before this is over. In fact, since breaching 10725, Dow Theory suggests that we will re-test 6,500 now. BUT, I am open to all information, and look for all arguments. And I’ll post again a couple things hinting we are at or near the bottom. Not conclusive, but what is? - sentiment is at all time lows - markets are at very oversold conditions - I’ve heard “depression” a lot more than “recession” - USD gaining strength, as EM and Eur deterioriate - safe haven US still in tact - CRAMER IS BEARISH NOW (after calling 5 market bottoms)
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Funny thing is, I agree that there is a lot of > pain and chain reactions to go before this is > over. In fact, since breaching 10725, Dow Theory > suggests that we will re-test 6,500 now. > > BUT, I am open to all information, and look for > all arguments. > > And I’ll post again a couple things hinting we are > at or near the bottom. Not conclusive, but what > is? > > - sentiment is at all time lows > - markets are at very oversold conditions > - I’ve heard “depression” a lot more than > “recession” > - USD gaining strength, as EM and Eur deterioriate > - safe haven US still in tact > - CRAMER IS BEARISH NOW (after calling 5 market > bottoms) First, I would say that #2 is highly debatable and, regardless, virtually impossible to prove. #1, #3, and #5 (the Cramer point–the way AF quotes it, at least for me, makes it look like there are 6 points, when there are only 5), IMO, are meaningless, and really they are all just the same point–which is that the general population is becoming very bearish. Those are just contrarian cues, but they could just as well mean absolutely nothing. There is nothing inherent to those points that suggest that we have anything to be optimistic about. Look, we can argue all day long about what popular sentiment means for a bear market. On the other hand, all the points I mentioned, and all of the “Pros” you listed indicating why we have further to drop, are logical, rational reasons, -backed by economic/financial theory- that suggest we have a LONG way to go. In addition, a number of them are quantified, whereas your “Cons” are purely subjective. Under this criteria, #4 is the only point of yours that I’d give any weight to. However, even that is debatable, as it is hard to say that the dollar is “gaining strength.” Really, it just isn’t sucking as bad as the euro and pound. Not to mention that it’s getting worked over by the yen.
Quick Glance: List is not the greatest NY Times? At the rate they are going they will be out of business… Prudential has been having some issues RadioShack? Who buys from there virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ptrainer, you’re being overly pessimistic. I’m > attaching a list of 200+ stocks that are buying > back shares so fast that, on average, they won’t > exist too much longer. These stocks have bought > back shares every year for the last 6 years. > Never skipping. They will disappear soon so you > better buy them. When they buy when the market > swoons it is even better for them (and the > remaining few shareholders). > > Or, another way of looking at it, if the S&P drops > by as many points as it dropped today, everyday > going forward … it will completely cease to > exist in just 19 days. Gone. Are those assets > that bad? Are the fundamentals that bad? Will > the S&P be gone in a month? > > The world is getting a little pessimistic. I went > to the grocery store and there was still plenty of > food on the shelves. I’m not a technician but the > market has gone parabolic downwards (just like oil > went parabolic upwards, just like dotcom went > parabolic upwards, etc. etc.). I’m going out on a > limb and saying, “the end of the world will not be > within the next 60 days.” > > Stocks that will cease to exist… name, ticker, > years left: > > Comdisco Holdings Company, Inc CDCO 5 > Asia Tigers Fund, Inc., The GRR 6 > Chester Bancorp, Inc. CNBA 6 > CBS Corporation CBS 7 > CBRL Group, Inc. CBRL 8 > DST Systems, Inc. DST 8 > Energizer Holdings, Inc. ENR 11 > AutoNation, Inc. AN 11 > Zale Corporation ZLC 13 > Continental Info. Systems CISC 13 > AutoZone, Inc. AZO 13 > Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. PPD 13 > Lexington B & L Financial Corp LXMO 13 > SPX Corporation SPW 13 > High Country Bancorp, Inc. HCBC 13 > CBIZ, Inc. CBZ 14 > CIGNA Corporation CI 14 > IMS Health, Inc. RX 14 > WSFS Financial Corporation WSFS 14 > Bank Mutual Corporation BKMU 15 > National Semiconductor Corpora NSM 15 > Birner Dental Mgmt. Services BDMS 15 > Credit Acceptance Corp. CACC 15 > Core Laboratories N.V. CLB 15 > Bank of Hawaii Corporation BOH 15 > Brinker International, Inc. EAT 15 > Vestin Realty Mortgage I Inc. VRTA 15 > Jefferson Bancshares, Inc. JFBI 16 > Astoria Financial Corporation AF 16 > Linear Technology Corporation LLTC 16 > Borders Group, Inc. BGP 17 > Papa John’s Int’l, Inc. PZZA 17 > Ziegler Companies, Inc., The ZGCO 17 > CEC Entertainment, Inc. CEC 17 > Telefonos de Mexico, S.A. (ADR TMX 18 > NVR, Inc. NVR 18 > Affiliated Computer Services, ACS 18 > MutualFirst Financial, Inc. MFSF 18 > Swisscom AG (ADR) SCMWY 18 > Masco Corporation MAS 19 > CSG Systems International, Inc CSGS 19 > Republic Services, Inc. RSG 19 > Waters Corporation WAT 20 > Great American Bancorp GTPS 20 > TESSCO Technologies, Inc. TESS 21 > Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. ETH 21 > RadioShack Corporation RSH 21 > SVB Financial Group SIVB 21 > Wayne Savings Bancshares, Inc WAYN 21 > Winnebago Industries, Inc. WGO 21 > Lincare Holdings Inc. LNCR 21 > Marriott International, Inc. MAR 21 > Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, DNB 21 > Harte-Hanks, Inc. HHS 21 > Torchmark Corporation TMK 21 > MGIC Investment Corp. MTG 21 > Home Depot, Inc., The HD 22 > Polaris Industries Inc. PII 22 > Sturgis Bancorp, Inc. STBI 22 > Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. NUS 22 > HNI Corporation HNI 22 > Autoliv Inc. ALV 22 > Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU 23 > Herman Miller, Inc. MLHR 23 > Ryland Group, Inc., The RYL 23 > Circuit City Stores, Inc. CC 23 > UBS AG (USA) UBS 23 > Intuit Inc. INTU 23 > Pepsi Bottling Group, Inc., Th PBG 23 > Utah Medical Products, Inc. UTMD 23 > Methanex Corporation (USA) MEOH 24 > Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH 24 > MAXXAM Inc. MXM 24 > Fog Cutter Capital Group Inc. FCCG 24 > Arctic Cat Inc. ACAT 24 > Dover Downs Gaming & Entertain DDE 24 > Indiana Community Bancorp INCB 25 > Progressive Corporation, The PGR 25 > Toro Company, The TTC 25 > Family Dollar Stores, Inc. FDO 25 > Lancaster Colony Corp. LANC 25 > Camden National Corporation CAC 25 > Imperial Oil Limited (USA) IMO 25 > Rome Bancorp, Inc. ROME 25 > Timberland Company, The TBL 26 > Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN 26 > BMC Software, Inc. BMC 26 > North Central Bancshares, Inc. FFFD 26 > Tyler Technologies, Inc. TYL 26 > Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI 26 > Diageo plc (ADR) DEO 26 > Harley-Davidson, Inc. HOG 27 > Convergys Corporation CVG 27 > Pactiv Corporation PTV 27 > Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 27 > Applied Biosystems Inc. ABI 27 > Tri-Continental Corporation TY 27 > Micrel, Incorporated MCRL 28 > Morgan Stanley Income Securiti ICB 28 > Jack in the Box Inc. JBX 28 > TJX Companies, Inc., The TJX 28 > Commerce Bancshares, Inc. CBSH 28 > PepsiAmericas, Inc. PAS 28 > Estee Lauder Companies Inc., T EL 28 > Blyth, Inc. BTH 28 > Brookfield Homes Corporation BHS 28 > First Federal Bankshares, Inc. FFSX 28 > Kent Financial Services, Inc. KENT 29 > Express Scripts, Inc. ESRX 29 > BASF SE (ADR) BASFY 29 > Hershey Company, The HSY 29 > Allstate Corporation, The ALL 29 > Portugal Telecom, SGPS (ADR) PT 29 > First Financial Bancorp FFBC 29 > Pinnacle Bancshares, Inc. PCLB 29 > Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 29 > First BancTrust Corporation FBTC 30 > First Mid-Illinois Bancshares, FMBH 30 > Waste Management, Inc. WMI 30 > Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. HCBK 30 > MBT Financial Corp. MBTF 30 > Radian Group Inc. RDN 30 > Sherwin-Williams Company SHW 30 > Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 31 > PrimeEnergy Corporation PNRG 31 > Suffolk Bancorp SUBK 31 > Electrolux AB (ADR) ELUXY 31 > Canadian National Railway (USA CNI 31 > TCF Financial Corporation TCB 32 > Renaissance Learning, Inc. RLRN 32 > Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB 32 > Central Bancorp, Inc. CEBK 32 > BP plc (ADR) BP 33 > Talisman Energy Inc. (USA) TLM 33 > WVS Financial Corp. WVFC 33 > Nippon Telegraph & Telephone C NTT 34 > Dell Inc. DELL 34 > CorVel Corporation CRVL 34 > Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. BUD 34 > AstraZeneca plc (ADR) AZN 34 > NTT DoCoMo, Inc. (ADR) DCM 35 > TOTAL S.A. (ADR) TOT 35 > Ross Stores, Inc. ROST 35 > MBIA Inc. MBI 35 > FFW Corporation FFWC 35 > InterGroup Corporation, The INTG 36 > Team Financial, Inc. TFIN 36 > Automatic Data Processing ADP 36 > Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW 36 > Groupe Danone SA (ADR) GDNNY 37 > McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., T MHP 37 > Anchor BanCorp Wisconsin Inc. ABCW 38 > Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. (A TKOMY 39 > Wireless Xcessories Group, Inc WIRX 39 > Dionex Corporation DNEX 39 > First Financial Service Corp. FFKY 40 > StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. SFG 40 > Learning Tree International, I LTRE 40 > Westfield Financial, Inc. WFD 40 > Yum! Brands, Inc. YUM 40 > LandAmerica Financial Group, I LFG 41 > Kroger Co., The KR 42 > America Movil S.A.B de C.V. (A AMX 42 > American Express Company AXP 43 > UnionBanCal Corporation UB 43 > Northeast Bancorp/ME NBN 44 > Lawson Products, Inc. LAWS 44 > First Financial Holdings, Inc. FFCH 44 > Speedus Corp. SPDE 45 > Universal Health Services, Inc UHS 45 > Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) TM 45 > First Northern Community Banco FNRN 46 > Air T, Inc. AIRT 46 > Scope Industries SCPJ 46 > W.W. Grainger, Inc. GWW 46 > DCB Financial Corp. DCBF 47 > Valassis Communications, Inc. VCI 47 > Pool Corporation POOL 47 > Sigma-Aldrich Corporation SIAL 47 > Texas Pacific Land Trust TPL 47 > Federated Investors, Inc. FII 47 > Ball Corporation BLL 47 > Eaton Vance Corp. EV 48 > Altera Corporation ALTR 48 > La-Z-Boy Incorporated LZB 49 > OceanFirst Financial Corp., In OCFC 49 > Leggett & Platt, Inc. LEG 49 > Mediacom Communications Corpor MCCC 49 > First Independence Corp. /DE/ FFSL 49 > First of Long Island Corporati FLIC 50 > Pitney Bowes Inc. PBI 51 > SEI Investments Company SEIC 51 > Horizon Financial Corp HRZB 52 > Comm Bancorp, Inc. CCBP 53 > Kraft Foods Inc. KFT 53 > Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) NVO 54 > Northeast Indiana Bancorp NIDB 54 > Rockwell Collins, Inc. COL 55 > Peoples Bancorp PBNI 56 > Graco Inc. GGG 57 > Telkom SA Limited (ADR) TKG 57 > Chemung Financial Corp. CHMG 58 > Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. WMT 59 > Liberty Homes, Inc. LIBHA 60 > KeyCorp KEY 62 > Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. TR 62 > Croghan Bancshares, Inc. CHBH 62 > First National Corporation FXNC 62 > Dime Community Bancshares, Inc DCOM 63 > LCNB Corp. LCNB 63 > First Citizens Bancorporation, FCBN 64 > PepsiCo, Inc. PEP 64 > McCormick & Company, Incorpora MKC 66 > POSCO (ADR) PKX 67 > Dillard’s, Inc. DDS 67 > Goldfield Corporation, The GV 68 > Medtronic, Inc. MDT 69 > Old National Bancorp ONB 71 > SYSCO Corporation SYY 71 > Holobeam, Inc. HOOB 71 > Ocwen Financial Corporation OCN 72 > Coca-Cola Company, The KO 73 > Wilber Corporation, The GIW 74 > GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) GSK 74 > HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (ADR) HMC 75 > UST Inc. UST 75 > NIKE, Inc. NKE 77 > Altex Industries, Inc. ALTX 80 > Kubota Corporation (ADR) KUB 82 > Molex Incorporated MOLX 82 > Colgate-Palmolive Company CL 83 > AFLAC Incorporated AFL 85 > Citizens Financial Corp./DE/ CIWV 86 > Bar Harbor Bankshares BHB 88 > Wal-mart de Mexico S A B de C WMMVY 88 > UMB Financial Corporation UMBF 89 > Royal Bank of Canada (USA) RY 92 > United Security Bancshares Inc USBI 94 > Becton, Dickinson and Co. BDX 97 > New York Times Company, The NYT 97 > Wacoal Holdings Corporation (A WACLY 98 > Bridgford Foods Corporation BRID 99 > Farmers & Merchants Bancorp FMCB 104 > Northern States Financial Corp NSFC 108 > Cincinnati Financial Corporati CINF 112 > Citizens Financial Services, I CZFS 113 > Norsk Hydro ASA (ADR) NHYDY 124 > Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 128 > Liquidation World Inc. (USA) LIQWF 141 > First Financial Corporation THFF 143 > Walgreen Company WAG 148 > Shiseido Co. LTD. (ADR) SSDOY 175 > Penns Woods Bancorp, Inc. PWOD 180 > Daily Journal Corporation DJCO 185 > Pioneer Railcorp PRRR 191 > Kirin Holdings Company, Limite KNBWY 208 > Peoples Financial Corporation PFBX 253 > Tufco Technologies, Inc. TFCO 255 > AVX Corporation AVX 306 > Kansas City Life Insurance Com KCLI 373 > Weis Markets, Inc. WMK 646 > SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. (ADR) SANYY 940 > Bowl America Incorporated BWL.A 2575
I just want to point out that my new target and possible 400-500 targets don’t have to occur imminently. The majority of technical indicators I look at point to a very high probability that this bear market is going to be a multi-year bear market. Many on this forum claim to be investing for the long-term therefore they are willing to ride this out…investing for the long-term? ha - a pure sucker’s game if you ask me… there are TWO sides to the market. Selling (shorting) and buying. Period. And given that we have the Fed machinations creating bubble after bubble, investing for the long-term is a fool’s game. There is the textbook and then there is practice.
lol My targets are between 0 and 50,000. My new targets will be hit within 100000 years from now. Dude, if you’re going to make a call, make it like a man.
In some cases the market is just not rational at all right now. For instance consider the following case: An insurance company earning a 15-17% ROE over the long-term cycle is trading at .6x BV. Underlying assets/reserves have very limited (
.6x BV may mean inaccurate book value which company?
BosyBillups Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > lol > > My targets are between 0 and 50,000. My new > targets will be hit within 100000 years from now. > > > Dude, if you’re going to make a call, make it like > a man. I am making a call pal. I was right in calling a bear market. Nothing goes straight down unless bids all but disappear. I’m making my call that we will test 2002 bear cycle lows next year. I can’t predict when in 2009 right now because I need an up move to be able to constuct time relationships for when the next big down move is going to happen. Here’s constructive criticism for you: >Cons that we have further down to go: >- sentiment is at all time lows - No. Sentiment is not at all time lows. It’s only at the lows for the period for which data is available. Besides the point we’ve had VERY negative sentiment since June. >- markets are at very oversold conditions Wrong. Even if this was the case, crashes occur from very oversold conditions. >- I’ve heard “depression” a lot more than “recession” Is this the “mainstream media cover” effect? There may be something to it. This effect can’t however overpower technicals. >- USD gaining strength, as EM and Eur deterioriate - safe haven US still in tact USD gaining strength does not signify the market is close to bottom . NO correlation. Safe haven? You think the USD is appreciating because the U.S. is a safe haven? LOL. >- CRAMER IS BEARISH NOW (after calling 5 market bottoms) I stopped watching Cramer a while ago.
To be honest, it’s not really impressive, your call now. It would have been impressive last October, however. This board was screaming buy and go long on everything when the Dow hit 14,000. But when the market is down 30% or so, and to claim it will go lower… all I have to do is laugh. But if it makes you feel smart, then go for it.