new foreclouse data

The new foreclosure data is still showing an increasing trend which, if I’m not mistaken, is not what some bond experts (spierce & various others) were expecting. They were expecting only huge initial defaults, not ongoing foreclosures that are trending up like this graph shows:

Interesting, I did a simple analysis of housing prices and founds that should prices continue to on the aggregate decay another 2-3% per month as per Case-Schiller, we would likely back towards a more reasonable level by Fall. That is assuming that in the long run, a house price should grow at a LT Bond yield. Of course as in all things, the correction is usually too deep, but housing may different due to govt bailouts and their general stickiness. Either way, we’re only in about the 4th, maybe 5th inning of the crisis in my book.