NK Escalation

So, if NK Launches towards guam

  1. Will we try to intercept? If we will, and we clearly will fail, this will show our hand to Russians and Chinese - Not good

  2. If We won’t respond, this will also who our hand again, because you know, Fire and Fury and stuff - Not good

  3. If we respond - then how? Moving all military assets there? China won’t be happy, not happy at all - Not good

  4. If we try to take out Nuke facilities with Bombers, China, might intercept - Not good

Mood - short everything, oil your guns, stack on bitcoin and antibioitcs

Why would we obviously fail at intercepting the ICBMs? THAD is the last line of defense and it’s success rate is 100% (during practice runs). We have something like three defensive measures that can be taken before THAD is even needed. I’m fairly certain unless NK (or whoever) shoots dozens of missiles at once, we can knock them out of the sky without much difficultly.

This is the best case scenario because it effectively tells the rest of the world we can’t be touched…at least through the air.

say they send a nuke? we catch it no harm no foul?

is it ok if we just nuke them back?

gyna said they wont step in if nk attacks first

99% this is hot air from Trump. China will never allow regime change or an attack on NK.

Didn’t some NK general say Trump was a lazy bastard who plays too much golf? What was trumps response to that? Bet he was fuming…

Depends on where you are. There’s a very low, probably 0%, chance we can take out all their launch sites and an absolute zero chance we can take out all their artillery. So, even if we intercept an ICBM (with or without a nuke attached) we should still think very hard before firing back. Basically, NK can level Seoul and kill millions before we could stop them.

But this is a risky move, dont you agree? If Russia/China will see that we intercepted everything, what do you think Russia/China will think about placing THAAD at their borders? Very big escalation.

i wanted to play UVXY on mon/tues but I didn’t because I’m an idiot. i think it still has legs. but im also not trying to get caught in negative roll yield at a basis of 40… I know UVXY is not typically a vehicle for swing trades but f*** it doe. thoughts?

so the koreans kill each other and china’s trading partners are decimated. sounds like an absolute win for the us.

so im guessing the fear is china’s MAD against us if their economy gets fucked.

whaaaaaa?? you seriously wack bro or you got a sick case of blue balls

Holy shit. Just wiki’ed and the rockets can go mach 8.24 (2.8km/s).

Oh, and NK - depending on how accurate their mid-range missiles are - could very well hit Tokyo too. So, if we strike back, Seoul is gone for sure and Tokyo is probably hurting.

SK will ultimately make the call. if an ICBM is sent to guam and the US intercepts, SK has to be pretty concerned about NK’s willingness to roll over Seoul. at some point Seoul will be hammered. if NK was strategic, they would hold Seoul hostage during the 2018 olympics. if ever you were to get concessions, it would be when there are millions of foreigners in Seoul.

what happens if the un just lifts sanctions. takes the wind out of their rhetoric or what?

That’s what NK wants. Their playbook hasn’t changed in decades. Threaten someone to get sanctions lifted or some other concessions. Never really do anything. Until they actually fire at SK, Japan, or Guam, it’s really just talk. No reason to lift anything.

“This man will not get away with what he is doing,” Trump told reporters. “If he utters one threat in the form of an overt threat … or if he does anything with respect to Guam, or any place else that is an American territory or an America ally, he will truly regret it and he will regret it fast.” (Trump)

Game over folks.

Expect NK bombing and China involvement over the weekend

I know that. My question is whats the practical benefit of ramping up the rhetoric ? I can understand the moral one but assuming one lesves them alone they cant exactlt be an expansionist power given they are hemmed in by the chinese russians and japanese

NK wants to be seen as a credible threat in a hope that the US or UN will grant them diplomatic concessions in return for backing down. This is what Kim Il Sung managed to achieve, only to renege on his promise shortly afterwards.

Trump is just threatening retribution with the hope that the threats are enough to convince NK to slow its nuclear development. The US probably believes this will be ineffective anyway, and that they will have to resort to some other action later. I have to think that the UN Security Council has planned their next response already, depending on what NK decides to do.

So guys odds on the chances n Korea has a nuke in/under or has tried to smuggle a nuke that was discovered in/beneath Seoul that got intercepted before it was in place?