A few weeks ago I thought there was no way the Dow would see 8000. Now it looks likely. I think we’ll hover between 8000-8500 for awhile.
I don’t think it will go much lower than 8500 if it starts getting bad. I think the volatility will be at 8750 - 9000 if it is struggling before heading up again.
What do I win for guessing correctly?
supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What do I win for guessing correctly? -40%
supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What do I win for guessing correctly? 500 shares of General Motors redeemable January 1st, 2009.
That’s an OK prize. I’ll take it.
what is the CDS spread on GM right now. I dont have a bloomy here!
7500 - 8000
I think even 8000 is conservative, we are in the worst recession since 1929. Time to give up hope.
First, don’t look at the dow. It’s an antiquated index full of crap companies. Second, if you do look at the dow or whatever bs benchmark, and you compare it to depressions/recessions of the past then you must realize that stock prices are already off by record amounts and investors are, in the words of Warren Buffett “the most scared I’ve ever seen them in my life.”
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > First, don’t look at the dow. It’s an antiquated > index full of crap companies. > > Second, if you do look at the dow or whatever bs > benchmark, and you compare it to > depressions/recessions of the past then you must > realize that stock prices are already off by > record amounts and investors are, in the words of > Warren Buffett “the most scared I’ve ever seen > them in my life.” That’s a little harsh… Though I agree that the Dow should not be used as a gauge for the entire market, there are some good names among the 30 i.e. UTX, GE, PG As for your second point, it might be noted that Buffett did not live through the 1929 crash… And the Dow closed down over 80% at the trough after the crash. Therefore, these losses are hardly record amounts.
I didn’t look at specific troughs. The most the market ever lost during a single depression year is 44%(1931). We’re already down by 33% this year. We’re down 36% from a year ago at this time. During the entire depression, over the course of 4 years, it lost 65%. -8% in 1931 -25% in 1932 -44% in 1933 -9% in 1934 If we’re in a depression of that magnitude(draught induced starvation, record unemployment, civil unrest, etc.), then we’re over half way to the bottom already in stock prices.