I love how no one is watching oil anymore. It’s about time oil was shunned from the spotlight. Oil was the talk of the town for 6 months and the main driver for the markets during that time period. It was such an obvious bubble, I can’t believe there were analysts predicting $200+ oil. It’s about time the markets started reflecting the health of our economy and financial position.
I don’t understand how there were 2 supposedly major hurricanes that passed through the GoM and yet oil fell by over $10. I’m also not really buying the whole demand destruction argument at $90 oil. Sure, we know that demand will weaken at $145 oil, but at $90? Everyone will jump back into their SUV’s and motorhomes at $90.
bec china, india and other emerging countries are not growing anymore and the americans are driving less, buying more fuel efficient cars and we have more oil under the ground than estimated…wake up!
because it was too much paper buying in the damn market! Oil will settle between 60-80 and stay there. I’m the new GS.
I dunno. Might be that it really was a bubble. Maybe it will get down to like $15 again. Buy me one of them dualie pick-up trucks with a Hemi.
i’ll take the over on that bet. not sure it’s going to calm down anytime soon, but if I had to pick a settle level, I’d be closer to 100-110. time will tell. i’m not the new GS.
Does anyone actually cover energy here?? Thought so. The days of $60 oil is long gone…high cost capacity is $75-80…there is your absolute min floor. The speculation argument for the big move to $150 is crap. It was a result of commercial buyers who held off buying and depleted inventories to the point where they could no longer do so and were forced to buy at elevated prices…moving prices up further…this, combined with a steady demand trend and a deterioration in global excess capacity, resulted in a move toward a scarcity model - a la the huge acceleration in crude prices. I see us range bound between 85ish and 115ish for the rest of the year…
JDV could drive his hemi through that spread!
Oil will be $30 (That’s how my equities price it!)
- When does this actually translate to lower prices at the pump? 2) What weighs more heavily on the consumer’s minds: Lower gas prices or the financial crisis?
- Takes a while 2) Seems like gas prices to me
bannisja Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JDV could drive his hemi through that spread! +5 LOL
In response to l2’s #2: I would argue that the financial crisis is largely overshadowed by 1) hurricane 2) Palin’s lipstick color Sunday night was wild…CNBC was all over it, but it was largely ignored by other media outlets. We hear it everyday b/c we are in the industry…but people in rural america…the 3rd grade teacher from arkansas…is probably not affected all that much and probably doesnt really care.
jbisback Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Does anyone actually cover energy here?? Thought > so. > > The days of $60 oil is long gone…high cost > capacity is $75-80…there is your absolute min > floor. The speculation argument for the big move > to $150 is crap. It was a result of commercial > buyers who held off buying and depleted > inventories to the point where they could no > longer do so and were forced to buy at elevated > prices…moving prices up further…this, combined > with a steady demand trend and a deterioration in > global excess capacity, resulted in a move toward > a scarcity model - a la the huge acceleration in > crude prices. > > I see us range bound between 85ish and 115ish for > the rest of the year… That 75-80, is that all-in cost or marginal? i thought marginal was 50 (7 for n.g. shale). If its 50 then the s-t price= 50.
^ I don’t know about that. Both my wife and mother in law couldn’t give a rats @ss about financial markets. Never mentioned anything about them…ever. My wife is out of town right now and it was the first thing she asked me when she called last night. Granted she was concerned (for the first time ever) that this was going to affect my job. Right after I hung up with her, my mother in law was calling to talk about it. I’ve never heard her talk a word about finance in the 20 years I’ve known her. I was totally tongue twisted and didn’t know what to say.
I see high cost production in the canadian tar sands at 75-80…oil drops below that and there will be a supply response by them first…cutting production which would effectively lead to stabilized or increasing prices…depending on how severe the response is…
I thought 140 seemed high, but I am a little surprised it’s below $100.
Generally the oilsands projects start to become marginally economic at around $50. I’m not worried at all yet.
yah…$50 18 months ago. Cost curve has shifted. just my two cents…
the production costs during a period of high commodity prices are not going to be the same as in a period of decling/low commodity prices. use inventory and demand to find a bottom! (jmho!) TRUST ME: that cost curve you cite will shift back if commodity prices continue their free fall