Opinions: TM (ADR)

When do you guys Toyota will hit bottom? If this situation finally normalizes, what upside are we looking at?

I remember reading the first rumblings about the accelerator issues in December and wanting to write call options and short the stock. However I think when it normalizes it would be tough to see much of a strong upside since consumer confidence in the product will be hurt. Maybe a narrow put/call spread to collect some contract $? **EDIT** I also think the market might take a little more value out of TM gradually (nothing that would spike the volatility) however, for the most part most people see value in TM stock due to it’s brand diversification. Also, anyone who is friends with me on facebook can see my current views on the “stuck accelerators”

i dont think we have any more downside, at least not due to the acceleration/braking issues, it could sink with broader market in the near-term. i loaded up around 74 and planning to hold for 2-3 years. i expect them to return to previous levels of trading around the highest multiples amongst autos. no one will care or remember this panic in a year or so… heres a good op-ed on the issue: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/toyotas-are-safe-enough/?ref=opinion