Page 332 #12 Cap Expectations Book (CFAI)

I am sure this is easy but i seem to have trouble grasping the concept… i missed this in the morning last year too. If you need a 90% chance of reaching a certain dollar amount, and only the 10% line falls below that amount, then doesn’t that mean there is a 90% chance you will attain that goal?

I dont understand why in #12 it doesn’t achieve his goal. Someone please spoon feed this to me.

it is giving you wealth percentile on the y-axis. So to achieve 90% probability - you need to be looking at the 10% percentile # which is at 500K Or there abouts, no where near his 630K target.

Remember the trick here is the y-axis is log-scale . 630,000 would be closer to 1,000,000 than a linear scale. for 2012 the 25% would occur well above the 10% line . So Mr. Stevenson has about 20-25% chance of not achieving a goal of 630,000 . Which means he has only a 80-75% chance of achieving his goal

so the 8th tick should be hitting the 90% line in 2012, for it to be 90% getting the 630,000?

so the 8th tick should be hitting the 90% line in 2012, for it to be 90% getting the 630,000?