# Pass Rate

The passing rate for CFA exams are declining. Check out this link. In 2004, L2 result was 32% and last year it was 40%. Which was second lowest every. Isnt it scary? I hope this year it will go up. http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprog/pdf/candidate_results.pdf

You must be a momentum investor if you taking 4 data points to make a trend line (especially when you forgot to mention 2005 being up considerably). Let me know when a head and shoulder starts forming and I’ll buy in.

2004 was that aberration year where AIMR got tough with the study guide providers. Last year was an aberration as the final year before they started requiring you to buy their stuff. I say LII pass rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - 500)/500))

I would say somewhere in the upper 40’s…agree with Joey…going from 32% to 56% included a record # of retakers. I’ll go a little lower…say 48%

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 2004 was that aberration year where AIMR got tough > with the study guide providers. Last year was an > aberration as the final year before they started > requiring you to buy their stuff. I say LII pass > rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = > 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - > 500)/500)) What is the pass rate for those that can’t solve your equation?

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 2004 was that aberration year where AIMR got tough > with the study guide providers. Last year was an > aberration as the final year before they started > requiring you to buy their stuff. I say LII pass > rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = > 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - > 500)/500)) I get Pi squared/6…should I worry?

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 2004 was that aberration year where AIMR got tough > with the study guide providers. Last year was an > aberration as the final year before they started > requiring you to buy their stuff. I say LII pass > rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = > 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - > 500)/500)) Oooh! 651 posts makes P(chrismaths passes LII) = 81.69635%!

652 makes P(chrismaths passes LII) = 81.73293%! Did you feel me getting cleverer?

Joey’s formula implies that the optimal strategy for us would be posting as much as possible on AF during the next few weeks.

I don’t think it works like that. But Chrismath’s prob seems pretty reasonable…

Can’t work. That would make me a lock.

I’ll be one of those in the left tail of this distribution…

mwvt9 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Can’t work. That would make me a lock. The formula doessn’t account for things like family emergencies. This is called “model bias”.

Ahh…gotcha.

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 2004 was that aberration year where AIMR got tough > with the study guide providers. Last year was an > aberration as the final year before they started > requiring you to buy their stuff. I say LII pass > rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = > 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - > 500)/500)) The only factor missing from this equation is a deduction for the “non-value added posts”. Take Turkish for example - he has over 3500 posts…but none of them are specific to the material… Sorry Turk…you’re still #1 in my book

you guys crack me up

I’m panicking

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- I say LII pass > rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = > 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - > 500)/500)) Wish this formula works!

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 2004 was that aberration year where AIMR got tough > with the study guide providers. Last year was an > aberration as the final year before they started > requiring you to buy their stuff. I say LII pass > rate = 52% this year and an AF pass probability = > 52% + Max(0, 0.48* Normal cdf((# of posts on AF - > 500)/500)) if you are going to predict lets stay with Joey here. found this posted last year while looking for something else. Purealpha posted it the week b4 the actual exam: http://www.analystforum.com/phorums/read.php?12,555535,555839#msg-555839 gives me the chills to read it now

Hopefully the pass rates go jump up for the next three years and then go much much lower once I’m done.