Passing Rate Predictions?

I know this is probably a topic that’s been beaten to death every year, but it’s back on the chopping block.

My guess…


somewhere between 30% and 50%

For level 1, i am guessing…


I think the december passing rate should be slightly higher because there are more retakers in december from june??

A friend told me that new graduates don’t take level 1 exam right after their graduation, instead they normally go for the one in december. Maybe that’s why I saw a lot of young people at the test center last Sat. Combining this with retakers, I go for 39% like Nana :).

I don’t think believe in the retesting theory. I mean wouldn’t all the people who failed in December retake in June as well? So overall neither December or June would be overweighted with candidates who are retesting.

Ừm, it’s just a guess. Even for June, I can argue that more people prefer taking the exam in June because if they succeed, they will have about one year to prepare for L2. Or if they fail in June, it’s likely that they would try their luck again in December because at least they can still use the materials :).


A lot of people take the June exam for the first try knowing they can retake in the same year (with no changes in the curriculum).

Of course we know now that the curriculum doesn’t change that much from year to year, but for L1 takers they may not be so sure?

December was lower than June the last two years, I am going with no more than 33%.

june and dec are off by 1% every year…seems pretty consistent at 38% or 39%