I’m curious whether anyone knows the percentage of candidates who pass all three parts on their first attempt. Also does anyone know what percentage of people taking a given level are first timers versus repeaters, and their respective pass rates? Say out of a 100 people who take level 1, if 40% pass, then out of that 40, if on level 2 only 50% pass, then that’s 20 of the original 100, then on level 3, 60% of the remaining 20 pass, then that’s 12 people who pass all 3 parts. So the overall pass rate for all 100 people who started in that example would be 12%. I’m not trying to be discouraging or anything, just trying to make sure I understand what we’re up against and whether anyone knows the true overall pass rate for all 3 parts. I mean we all know how hard these exams are, and I want to get better grip on it. Any anecdotal information would be appreciated. Thanks

It’s been discussed here to death in the past, but the calculation you did assumes independence which is not close to the truth. There is a sizable cohort who pass 3/3.

Echoing Joey’s post, my guess is that the folks who pass L! first time are more likely to pass L2 first time than the overall percentage, and those who go 2/2 on L1 & L2 are more likely to pass L3 first time. So assuming independence would be far understating the likelihood of going 3/3.