Short Toll Brothers (TOL)! Big time!!!
amberpower Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > +1 bchadwick Amber how have you been? How’s the bun doing?
Good. Bun is doing well, beginning to feel like Violet Beuregarde though, haha, but i am in the homestretch (3 more months). I haven’t been around much b/c I don’t know when I can get back into CFA mode so it’s a bit depressing. But I knew you all would have some good insight on the drama over the weekend and today, so I thought I would stop in. Just hoping my job sticks around through this with #2 arriving in December.
hehe! This is unbelievable!
I was in grad school in 1987 so I wasn’t in finance but I’ve always been a news junkie. In lots of ways this is bigger than '87. Obviously, '87 had a remarkable two-day period (or 1 week or 2 weeks or something) but the long-term repercussions were not very much. The market recovered. Nobody died. The lasting impacts were nearly philosophical about the dangers of dynamic hedging, value of options as portfolio insurance, dangers of program trading, futures vs cash mismatches in crises, and others. This time we took out LEH and MER and FRE and FNM and who’s next? Stock market is down about as much as in '87; it just took longer to do it. For a sports analogy - '87 was kind of like a spectacular 15 car pile-up in a race where cars are flying all over the place, but when the dust settles, everyone walks away. '08 seems like a Dale Earnhardt crash - looks like nothing but an icon dies.
The rest of the market (non-financial, non-housing) is pretty healthy this time. In 87, it was across the board, right?
Yes - that’s a difference. I dunno about “pretty healthy”, though. If you bought MSFT 10 years ago, you have made nothing. How could that be healthy? (except I hate MSFT).
But if you bought Apple, you are rolling.
> For a sports analogy - '87 was kind of like a > spectacular 15 car pile-up in a race where cars > are flying all over the place, but when the dust > settles, everyone walks away. '08 seems like a > Dale Earnhardt crash - looks like nothing but an > icon dies. For a sports analogy I think it’s more like the soccer stadium scene in Michael Collins.
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The rest of the market (non-financial, > non-housing) is pretty healthy this time. In 87, > it was across the board, right? It depends what you call “healthy”. I think that this time is worse than 1987, because it affects (and will affect) everybody. How? Because of leverage. Whether you look at individuals, financial or non-financial companies, the majority of them need debt. How many companies would be able to do “business as usual” with no debt? How many people who be able to enjoy “life as usual” without debt? Not many. That’s why the worst crises are the ones that hit the banking system, because when banks cannot lend, everybody suffers. 1987 did not affect the banking system, sure most of them felt the pain, and some of them died, but most of them weathered the storm. Not this time round…
kevin0118 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > SHORT BROOKS BROTHERS!!! > > Oh wait, they’re not in banking. There will probably be a decrease in demand for seersucker shorts after this week so I agree with your recommendation.
AIG gone?
AIG Gone, Goldman Sachs next 
I am moving to Tokyo now…
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I was in grad school in 1987 so I wasn’t in > finance but I’ve always been a news junkie. In > lots of ways this is bigger than '87. Obviously, > '87 had a remarkable two-day period (or 1 week or > 2 weeks or something) but the long-term > repercussions were not very much. The market > recovered. Nobody died. The lasting impacts were > nearly philosophical about the dangers of dynamic > hedging, value of options as portfolio insurance, > dangers of program trading, futures vs cash > mismatches in crises, and others. > > This time we took out LEH and MER and FRE and FNM > and who’s next? Stock market is down about as > much as in '87; it just took longer to do it. > > For a sports analogy - '87 was kind of like a > spectacular 15 car pile-up in a race where cars > are flying all over the place, but when the dust > settles, everyone walks away. '08 seems like a > Dale Earnhardt crash - looks like nothing but an > icon dies. +1 for analogy -1000 for NASCAR/F1 reference
> +1 for analogy > -1000 for NASCAR/F1 reference What the hell are you talking about? I’m still wondering what the event of the weekend was. LEH going down or a 21-year kid beating the shit out of the entire Formula One grid in a mediocre car at Monza.
In my humble and unqualified opinion, we never recovered from the 2000/2001 perfect storm. The economy came to halt and people just tried to put a lipstick on a pig and we all played along.
I didn’t know Obama posted on this board too!
End of the Ponzi scheme.
ZeroBonus Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > WillyR Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Joey, > > > > How much have you seen though? You commented > that > > you’re an avid XBox play so I’m thinking you > have > > not been through 1987. Have you? > > > > Willy > > > he was born in '86 so yea technically he has been > through '87 You mean 1886?
tonight i’m gonna party like it’s 1789 http://www.solarnavigator.net/history/explorers_history/French_Revolution_Serment_du_jeu_de_paume_Tennis_Court_Oath.jpg
