business cycle attractive investments- list me off one (or more) attractive investments for each of the cycles: 1. RECOVERY 2. EARLY UPSWING 3. LATE UPSWING (BOOM) 4. ECONOMY SLOWS 5. RECESSION i’m spending my afternoon right now looking through my equity notecards and it’s amazing how many little detail things can be tested that just require memorization, not some massive formula. so get to it. I’ll give you one… Recovery- cyclical stocks
actually- we’ll make it a bit easier- here are the choices: stocks commodities bonds cyclical stocks interest rate sensitive stocks real estate
- Commodities 2. Stocks, RE 3. Bonds, Interest sensitive stocks 4. Bonds 5. Commodities
My guesses are 1. RECOVERY - cyclic-stocks, commodities 2. EARLY UPSWING - stock, real estates 3. LATE UPSWING (BOOM) - interest-sensitive-stocks, bonds 4. ECONOMY SLOWS - interest-sensitive-stocks, bonds 5. RECESSION - cyclic-stocks, commodities ?~?
- RECOVERY - cyclical-stocks, commodities, other risky assets 2. EARLY UPSWING - stock, real estates 3. LATE UPSWING (BOOM) - interest-sensitive-stocks, bonds 4. ECONOMY SLOWS - interest-sensitive-stocks, bonds 5. RECESSION - commodities and stocks (have noted late in cycle for both)… i guess here you just sit in cash or short the crap out of the market! nice work boys. cyclical you prob wouldn’t do in a recession- they tend to follow the business cycle, sometimes in exaggerated ways so that might be a bad call there. aside from that, you guys are spot on. solid.
I learned it quick when you label them on the chart. C words are at the bottom. Bonds/Interest sensitive stocks are near the top. Stock/RE are only on the upswing.
they’re pretty intuitive. i bought my apt in 2006… perhaps that wasn’t following these rules too closely?
Here’s another one that gets me: types of mergers with reference to economic cycle stage: Stages: Pioneer/Growth Rapid Growth Mature Growth Stabilization Decline And the types of mergers: Conglomerate Horizontal Vertical Answer below: Pioneer/Growth: Horizontal and Conglomerate Rapid Growth: Horizontal and Conglomerate Mature Growth: Horizontal and Vertical Stabilization: Horizontal Decline: All three
Bannisja, you are right, now I look through the book and find so many places they could throw one question or two, hopefully they won’t surprises us with most of those corner questions. This thread is great. I am always lazy to remember all those, trying to catch it during the exam by sense…
I hate memorizing the difference between types of real estate. “Apartments have high leverage and keep up with inflation, and hotels/motels have low leverage and low liquidity.”
… and passive, tax-shelter, for wealthy-old investors, management and control, obsolesce, zoning grrr!
rellison Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I hate memorizing the difference between types of > real estate. “Apartments have high leverage and > keep up with inflation, and hotels/motels have low > leverage and low liquidity.” I treated that section as interesting to read. IT is multiple choice, it would come out from your brain when it does
i feel the same way in fixed income with characteristics of a HEL vs a SLAB, etc… the sad part is, in every item set, maybe you get 2 or 3 calc questions, you get 2 maybe ratio or definition type questions that make you think, but you get a lot of times at least one oddball random factoid q where you have to really rack your brain to remember the little detail. up until test day, remember a point is a point is a point, so win them wherever you can. i just started today re-writing some formulas and just reviewing the small stuff on my notecards. try to win some of the dumb easy points. it’s almost to the point where if i don’t know my tax deferred vs exempt vs taxable stuff, i may just have to toss it and move on. i got that q wrong on the BSAS test by the way and i’m almost ready to sit down and learn those formulas. almost. that is my most ignored topic to date on this test- taxes in PM. i know nothing.
Will we need to know the dumb history questions about the Sherman Act, Clayton Act, etc?
i highly doubt it by 1890 is a date i hold near and dear to my heart just in case. and graham and dodd are the grand-daddies of the whole GGM discounting cash flows whatever it is they did exactly? i know that fama-french thought small cap stocks outperformed and stobaugh (or whatever his name is) added a liquidity factor. i dunno- do i know much? nope. just enough that if a mult choice q popped up on some history q, i think maybe i could fudge my way through.
topher Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Will we need to know the dumb history questions > about the Sherman Act, Clayton Act, etc? That is part of the evening PM essay section. Didn’t you get that email?
189x - Sherman 1914 - Clayton 1950 - Cefauver…xxxx 1976 - Hart / Scott / Rodino --> needs intervention from Govt auth.
cpk123 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 189x - Sherman > 1914 - Clayton > 1950 - Cefauver…xxxx > 1976 - Hart / Scott / Rodino --> needs > intervention from Govt auth. bro, did you remeber the dates? that is insane
Also those two very obscure points: Yardeni model & Molodovsky effect
Is Yardeni model just another name for the Fed Model, or did he spice it up by adding a premium of some sort to the mix?