Predict the pass rate for AnalystForum Residents

Hi folks, Two days to go. Or even one and a half; depends on your time zone. I do not know what the pass rate will be declared. But what I do know now that the last year the rate was 40%. Just for a moment, the 40% pass rate means 60% fail rate. And all the fail guys from all the galaxies are devised into 10 bands, yah? A minute after the results are released all you folks immediately open a new thread here on the forum and post here your results. As a systematic failure (I failed my Level II three times, counting the unreleased 2009) and an old resident of the AnalystForum I paid attention on extremely high of ‘passes’ reported on the forum. I did not do the statistics (just don’t have time for that) but the pass rate between the results posted by the forum residents forum is about 95%. Some careless failures fall into band 10. I saw one from band 8, but that is the down of the down. So statistics is clear: if you a forum resident, you’ll pass. “Weeellll, let me ask you a question” © Zig Ziglar. Predict the pass rate on the forum. If the general pass rate is slight higher than the last year, here on the forum I’ll predict 97% success rate.

pretty high I think, we are still talking about it means we took it seriously

No. I am talking about it but I am a loser…

Those who fail, almost do not post their result - that might be another conclusion

my prediction Pass rate among active AF members : 70% Pass rate among the lurkers : 50% Pass rate for all L2 candidates : 40%

No chance for 70%. That will be all humen history low. Just check the posts for the last 5 years. Start guessing from 93% at least.

reporting bias DSLHU Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > No chance for 70%. > That will be all humen history low. > Just check the posts for the last 5 years. > > Start guessing from 93% at least.

You assume that AF is not a fair sample of the general LE2 Candidate population. In my opinion, it is. All LE2 candidates prepare for the test using equally available test materials. Further, they have all displayed their ability by passing Level 1. This is true regardless of whether they were AF members or not. I believe that AF Pass percentages would be in line with the overall pass percentages for the exam. As mentioned above, there is no formal validation process to gauge results among board members. Hence, the high pass percentage perception.

nahsuar: you cannot argue with the facts. just search the forum and you will have to acept one of the two: (1) or everyone lies like a monkey (2) or AF is a community of extremely talanted individuals. I am asking myself if Madoff was cought if he would be an AF resident…

FYI AF is not GS - it’s a discussion board. DSLHU Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > nahsuar: you cannot argue with the facts. just > search the forum and you will have to acept one of > the two: > > (1) or everyone lies like a monkey > (2) or AF is a community of extremely talanted > individuals. > > I am asking myself if Madoff was cought if he > would be an AF resident…

so what?

good answer. DSLHU Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > so what?