Guys I have probabphobia( fear of probabilities) I can not seem to understand them with the formulas that are give in the material. you know Bayes, and , or, if, total I have gotten everything solid as I can, but cant seem the understand probablities. Any tricks that helped anyone here Thanks
I’m in the same boat. I know the basics and I’m fine with that. I’ve found that you can get the answer with just playing around with the numbers at times. Its worked for me and I move on.
Instead of remembering Bayes formula try to draw a probability tree. Takes a bit more time, but if you don’t know Bayes formula it helps to clearly illustrate things.
Agreed. I had a really tough time with probabilities until Peter Olinto from Stalla said to just draw a diagram each time. Once you are comfortable with the trees, which are simple but can be time consuming, it is really easy to solve the problems and there is no need to remember formulas.
Agreed with above. In grad school, they made us understand the theories behind bayes, but they also taught us to draw game trees. Much more useful when teaching these subjects.
Maybe it’s just my quantitative side coming out, but I found that I made considerably less errors by just memorizing the Bayes formula: P(A|B) =[P(B|A)/P(B)] / P(A)
I’m with mildeg, variables make much more sense to me then trees. However, this may be why I am suffering so much with quant.