Probability that MPS is <65%

CFA Level II
#41

I’ll add to the list of sayers who got a string Bs. IIRC, I had 5 or 6 in a row.

#42

I have lot of A, they must be mixing up the options for different people.

#43

i filled in both B and C on every question that i wasnt sure on. This way I’m confident I have a 66.7 percent chance of getting it right

#44

A lot of Bs in a row. 8 or 10. Felt little bit strange and when ended streak by answering other than B it made me happy :slight_smile:

#45

I think there is a high positive correlation between the length of the streak and % correct. This is because it’s human nature to break the streak when undecided between 2 answers or just completely unsure. If aware of this theory, however, it becomes useless. So now, everyone that has read this, I’m sorry but this theory no longer applies to you.

#46

P(MPS < 65%) = 8.2%.

#47

^joke?

#48

As good a guess as any.

#49

I’m 100% confident the MPS is between 35% and 75%.

#50

I had two sets of B’s in the am session (non-orange book) about 6 answers long. It scares me when I see more than 3 of any choice in a row.

#51

It is truely stunning to observe people fret about their probability of passing, while at the same time risking an PCP investigation for disclosing exam related details.

#52

I am one of the second time takers and cannt compare the two cause my preparation level had night and day difference, so felt it was easier

#53

I created this gsheet to help me quantify my odds of passing based on practice exams I took, over time as more and more factual, accurate and honest entries get made, we should have a tool, that can predict your ability to pass an exam based on the practice scores of your exams.

Feel free to enter your practice score and compare against past results

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At0Q_oPbnoVKdE5qSnV1U0dMWGNndV90VlRUa3lyQmc&usp=drive_web#gid=0