So things are looking ugly. Just for fun (no remarks about efficient markets, unbiased prices, etc. allowed), let’s hear prognostications for year end. Here are mine: Dow: 10,000 Gold: 1000 Oil: 100 Joey: 46 Election: One of the Republicans after Hillary and Obama eat each other. Real Estate: Getting crushed and getting worse despite shoddy govt attempts to bail out lenders and free up credit. Real Estate performs even worse than equities. Structured finance products: A liquidity crisis in the summer causes there to be some really great deals out there if you can supply liquidity to the market. Basketball: Carolina is undefeated for the entire season and runs away with the National Champion, handily crushing South #1 seed Duke 102-12 in the national championship game (ok, I’m not too sure about this one).
I don’t see the Dow dumping all the way to 10,000. Gold: 1200-1300 Oil: 120-125
Chargers 27 Patriots 21 Packers 31 Giants 17
Maybe the only sure thing these days is that we know the SuperBowl champs already. The chances of anyone but the Pats winning are about the same as Ben shaving his beard into a mustache…with handle bars.
Big Babbu Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Chargers 27 > Patriots 21 > > Packers 31 > Giants 17 No waaaaayz. New England >>>> Chargers. Its their year. Flames win the cup.
malnoll Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Maybe the only sure thing these days is that we > know the SuperBowl champs already. The chances of > anyone but the Pats winning are about the same as > Ben shaving his beard into a mustache…with > handle bars. I’d shave my beard into a handle bar moustache if that would help the Giants win.
Dow: 12,000 Gold: 1000 Oil: 75 Election: McCain over Obama Real Estate: bottoms in September. Structured finance products: Bottoming right now, we’ve seen our worst liquidity situation of 2008 already Basketball: Carolina is kidding themselves, Kansas wins the national title over Memphis… Tennessee and UCLA are the other 2 teams that find themselves in the final four.
Dow: 11,500 Gold: 1000 Oil: 75 Election: Obama over McCain; Dems increase majority in both houses Real Estate: another 20% down nationally Structure finance: no clue Sports: Packers, China wins most gold, probably anyone but the Yankees I fear
Forgot about Olympics prognostications … I’m not ready yet to do that. However, I predict that in most long-distance running events we will be shamed by countries I can’t locate on a map. I also predict that many medals will change hands in the 3 years after the Olympics when everyone fails drug tests.
Dow: 10000 S&P: 1150 Commercial Real Estate: bottoms July-Aug Residential Real Estate: bottoms November Non-Credit vanilla Structured Products (CMBS, Some ABS like AR, no CDO’s): bottom July Credit issue Structured products (Subprime RMBS): 2009 at the earliest. Non-Credit CDO’s: January 2009 Credit CDO’s: who cares? 2009 BCS Champions: Pete Carroll tries to pull a ‘Friday Night Lights’ and tackle Knowshon Moreno when he’s about to score a game-winning touchdown, but’s get stiff-armed in his face and peed on by UGA.
There are a lot of bears on this column… no positive outlooks out there?
Dwight Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > There are a lot of bears on this column… no > positive outlooks out there? after this week (on many fronts…)? not even close…
tennis, roger federer sweeps all grand slams titles this year and happily retire… history made. Olympics, China will surpass USA in total gold medals in the first time ever. However, Chinese stock / real estate market crashes after the Olympics. In year end DOW goes back up to 13500. oil drops to 90.
I predict that the Chinese stock market bubble will burst violently (possibly even into the streets, but that’s not the main prediction) BEFORE the Olympics (or during).
I agree with bchad, I think there will be some excellant buying ops after that. I am a big bear, and could see markets getting as low as some have suggested, but I think we’ll rebound before year end a bit
Patriots: go undefeated this year and next Celtics: Beat Detroit in EC Finals, Phx in 07-08 NBA Finals Red Sox: Land Santana, win 08 WS (greatest 1,2,3 rotation in MLB history) Pats 49, Chargers 3
jlx177 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Patriots: go undefeated this year and next > Celtics: Beat Detroit in EC Finals, Phx in 07-08 > NBA Finals > Red Sox: Land Santana, win 08 WS (greatest 1,2,3 > rotation in MLB history) > > Pats 49, Chargers 3 I’m guessing someone is from Boston/New England area. No Bruins too?
Sadly, the Bruins have become the red headed stepchild of Boston Sports.
Dow: 13,264.82 Gold: 985 Oil: 115 Election: Brett Favre Real Estate: Get worse before it gets better. Perhaps some stabilization by year end. Structured finance products: No idea
I’ll be borrowing on credit cards to buy stocks if the S+P hits 1250 in the next month.