How do you think the job market is going to shake out if the economy continues to sputter. Im moving over to an ER Associate position at a MM I-Bank covering tech hardware, should i be concerned before I even get there?
If it’s ML maybe, GS no.
I think worrying about a recession is pretty useless. What would you do differently in your career if you knew there was going to be a recession?
samss007, Sam , congratulations on your new position. I am also searching for an ER position in the tech space. Do you mind sharing some info about your background and your interview. I have about 10 years of experience in IT and have an MBA from NYU. I currently work for a BB in their Tech strategy team. Thanks.
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think worrying about a recession is pretty > useless. What would you do differently in your > career if you knew there was going to be a > recession? I agree 100% with JoeyDVivre. All too often, people get preoccupied with things they can’t control. For what it’s worth, I guess you could be concerned that things might be going into a recession…however, remember that there’s still trading activity when people sell off, so as long as you’re with a good shop and your research department can drive trade commissions, your trading desk can still make money for you in a down market unless or until the market totally flatlines. ER experience is good, and working at a MM in ER with the risk of being letting go is still probably better than whatever it is you’re doing right now.
Well, there are cyclical industries, and I think if you had a lot of generally applicable skills, you might avoid entering an industry that is highly cyclical during a recession. It can be a tough situation to be hired and then laid off six months later… was it really a consequence of recession, or were you just not a good employee? If you’re new, you wonder it yourself, and future employers likely wonder it too… It makes sense to ask if there are parts of the industry that are safer than others in this respect. I don’t know for sure, but I suspect that a lot of the subprime and high-yield lending and asset backed securities may be shut down. However, whoever survives may have a nice time cherry picking some cheap leftovers, so really good experienced folks who know what they’re doing are likely to prosper. But how to tell who they are beforehand? I think the question is whether this industry is going to lay a bunch of people off, if being in the next batch of recruits means you’re likely to be in those layoffs, and whether being laid off - if it happens - is going to be exceptionally difficult to recover from. My thoughts (but don’t take them as authoritative) 1. Layoffs are coming. 2. New people are probably less likely to be laid off, simply because they are cheaper to employ and are not clearly responsible for major problems, since they have less authority. However, entire departments/divisions may be shut down, and then everyone gets sacked. 3. Moving around and looking for the next job is going to be a big part of one’s life in this industry whether you are employed or not. In getting the “next” job, any experience is better than no experience. 4. When you do have a job, live on 90% of your after tax base salary, and save/invest your bonus for your future and/or a rainy day. Ok, you can splurge with maybe 30% of the bonus.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > My thoughts (but don’t take them as > authoritative) > > 1. Layoffs are coming. Yes, and sadly this could just be the beginning of things > > 2. New people are probably less likely to be laid > off, simply because they are cheaper to employ and > are not clearly responsible for major problems, > since they have less authority. I disagree. In the matter of large-scale layoffs, it becomes a matter of cost rather than who has authority. Junior people can, have, and will be sacked, and offers can be rescinded. It’s true that new, junior people are cheaper to employ; however, they aren’t that much cheaper than second- or third-year analysts or even associates, and they have no knowledge at all. You should realize that it can take many months for a junior person to ramp up and really “add value”; until then, they’re just being engaged in the learning process. So yes they are cheap, but relatively speaking, they are also more of a “cost” to the firm relative to more experienced analysts/associates who are top performers. Of course, new people also aren’t as costly as underperforming MD’s or VP’s, either… > However, entire > departments/divisions may be shut down, and then > everyone gets sacked. It’s happened already at several shops > 3. Moving around and looking for the next job is > going to be a big part of one’s life in this > industry whether you are employed or not. In > getting the “next” job, any experience is better > than no experience. Agreed > 4. When you do have a job, live on 90% of your > after tax base salary, and save/invest your bonus > for your future and/or a rainy day. Ok, you can > splurge with maybe 30% of the bonus. Agreed. You never know when there’ll be a rainy day. Always be prepared
Good point, numi. I’m not dogmatic about #2. I just figured that the first people to be sacked are a) those who clearly screwed up (and a lot of junior folks don’t have enough authority to do that badly), and b) those who are more expensive than they’re worth. I was thinking that junior folks were cheaper and therefore safer, but you reminded me that the super-junior folks don’t always have enough experience (compared to people a year or two more experienced) to justify even those salaries. It goes to show that getting up to speed and demonstrating competence as early as possible is pretty important. Of course, if it’s an organizational thing, where entire departments or funds are shut down, then there’s not much recourse. If you are a more senior manager, and didn’t clearly screw up, you might get transferred to a different project. If you’re that manager’s trusted underling, you might get transferred with him/her. Otherwise, it’s SOL time.