SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.869548055 R Square 0.756113821 Adjusted R Square 0.750811947 Standard Error 0.111955269 Observations 48 just ran a regression between L2 pass rates and L3 pass rates… it has a high R^2 is it coincidence or there is some thing more to it?
My guess is that there is something more to it…people who pass L2 are probably very capable of passing L3.
I ran a regression like this and found that the L2 and L3 pass rate correlations are likely spurious. Both pass rates have been declining over time, and once you incorporate the time trend into the regression, the L2 and L3 rates are not significantly related. However, my R^2 was substantially lower than yours (around 0.35), so there’s clearly something different about the data or methods we used.
Did you run for same year, or offset to account for the fact that this year’s L2 passers are next year’s L3 writers? (or even more complex to allow for L2 failures to be writing L3 in TWO years?) Try correlating increase/decrease in y/y pass rates vs. Superbowl wins (AFC vs. NFC) and see what comes up.
Oops, ignore my stupid comment…misinterpreted the question.
Ooops (x2), ignore my most recent comment… - I was trying to be a wiseguy at 6:40 AM in the morning… - then totally forgot that I was trying to be a wiseguy during that 4:13 AM post. Moral: do not try to be a wiseguy.