Russia's market

Ouch :slight_smile: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ff9306c-83f1-11dd-bf00-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

Couldn’t happen to a nicer kleptocracy.

whatever. this means huge opportunities for growth in the next couple of years. brokerages here in moscow are attracting new clients, precisely for that reason. don’t take it from me. im just relaying what the head of investment banking activities, ECM and research for a smallish russian brokerage told me yesterday.

When oil stops falling, Russia will def. be a buy.

Danteshek Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > whatever. this means huge opportunities for > growth in the next couple of years. brokerages > here in moscow are attracting new clients, > precisely for that reason. don’t take it from me. > im just relaying what the head of investment > banking activities, ECM and research for a > smallish russian brokerage told me yesterday. That sounds a little like a sales pitch to me. Are you permanently stationed over there right now? Have you talked with a range of people? I would be fascinated to learn how anyone over there could be bullish on the market after more than a 50% drop. You would think that Russia is the center of the disease rather than the US. Every strategy report I read out of there at the beginning of the year was projecting year-end targets for the RTS of around 3000. I know that basically no one predicted the extraordinary events of this year but if people there aren’t revealing some uncertainty about their own knowledge of what is really going on in their own market, then that is just embarrassing. I would find it perplexing if every manager there isn’t wracked with self-doubt right now. Keep us updated on what you are hearing.

Mr. Tambourine Man Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Danteshek Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > whatever. this means huge opportunities for > > growth in the next couple of years. > brokerages > > here in moscow are attracting new clients, > > precisely for that reason. don’t take it from > me. > > im just relaying what the head of investment > > banking activities, ECM and research for a > > smallish russian brokerage told me yesterday. > > > That sounds a little like a sales pitch to me. > Are you permanently stationed over there right > now? Have you talked with a range of people? I > would be fascinated to learn how anyone over there > could be bullish on the market after more than a > 50% drop. You would think that Russia is the > center of the disease rather than the US. Every > strategy report I read out of there at the > beginning of the year was projecting year-end > targets for the RTS of around 3000. I know that > basically no one predicted the extraordinary > events of this year but if people there aren’t > revealing some uncertainty about their own > knowledge of what is really going on in their own > market, then that is just embarrassing. I would > find it perplexing if every manager there isn’t > wracked with self-doubt right now. Keep us > updated on what you are hearing. I am in Moscow this week interviewing for positions. Right now two well known firms are considering me for marketing/investor relations type roles. I will keep you updated on what I hear.

Russian markets are closed until Friday.

mh7 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Couldn’t happen to a nicer kleptocracy. :wink: +1 for you!

Valuations for many russian companies look great after the crash, economy is for the most part sound (I am channeling Johhny Mac). If only they had private property rights that were respected, I would be a buyer.

I’m not so familiar with Russia but would like to know more. Aside from extractive industries (oil, gas, uranium, etc), and maybe cheap software development, what is the economy based on?

Russia has just cut oil taxes. Rosneft has gone kablam today.

How does a retail investor in the US invest in Russia (or for that matter any BRIC)? Is it mainly through ETFs? How does one do research? Sorry if this sounds dumb.

ETF’s and ADR’s.

Yeah, I’d buy Russian if I didn’t think my money could be confiscated at any time and if the economy were based on a commodity other than oil which is strong in the medium-term but looks to be going the way of the dinosaur ultimately.

To be clear, Russia is basically a banana republic, except that banana is made of oil/gaz/aluminum. So it is about extraction and related industries (i.e financial services). Financials took a beating, but they fundamentally have a lot of value since government would bail them out without diluting shares (Sberbank, VTB). If you buy shares in russian companies, you are basically there for a ride with Putin. If he manages his companies well, you will do well. Good bit of ADRs on OTC: RGZPF (Gazprom) is probably a good bet.

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