Do we keep sliding from here? I see we have a “decent” floor at 680.
S&P Dips below 1400 - check S&P Dips below 1300 - check S&P Dips below 1200 - check S&P Dips below 1100 - check S&P Dips below 1000 - check S&P Dips below 900 - check S&P Dips below 800 - check S&P Dips below 700 - check, but there’s a decent floor at 680 S&P Dips below 600 - tbd S&P Dips below 500 - tbd … S&P Dips below 100 - tbd S&P Dips to 0 - now THIS is the decent floor 
From yahoo: Usual P/E during recession is 5-8x. We are at 700. 8x would be a big drop from 700 P/E S&P 500 Level 10X 575 8X 460 (highest previous trough low) 7X 400 (average previous trough low) 6X 350 5X 300 (lowest previous trough low) http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/197344/How-Low-Can-the-Market-Go?tickers=^dji,^gspc,^ixic
PtrainerNY, what about a debt liquidation, and not just a recession? What’s the precedent for historic level of debt deleveraging, deflation, etc?
PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > From yahoo: > > Usual P/E during recession is 5-8x. No, its the extreme - not the ususal: That article cited the 1970’s and the 1930’s as an example - 5-8 is not the USUAL range during a recession. We’ve only seen those lows a few other times. They did not get that low in the early 90’s early 2000’s. Also, the late 70’s/early 80’s comparison is not valid because of the interest rates. Back then, risk free rates were upwards of 15% - which implies a much lowere PE.
With many of the peak to trough-to-date data points already exceeding the 90’s, 80’s, and 70’s contractions. And with no visible bottom to the global contraction yet, it’s probably safe to assume this is and will be an unusual recession, no? As an aside, how does one forecast earnings in this environment? If one can, I wouldn’t trust them.
With many of the peak to trough-to-date data points already exceeding the 90’s, 80’s, and 70’s contractions. And with no visible bottom to the global contraction yet, it’s probably safe to assume this is and will be an unusual recession, no? As an aside, how does one forecast earnings in this environment? If one can, I wouldn’t trust them.
Joe, Are you saying the economic phenomena we are witnessing is essentially a LBO / dot-com burst?
Absolutely not. I’m saying that an S&P PE of 5-8 doesn’t represent the expected trough of a recession. This one can go that low, but history doesn’t suggest that all recessions hit that point.
Do we keep sliding from here? I see we have a “decent” floor at 680. OP- where is the next “decent” floor? 
Well this guy with the pink tie says it can hit 450…scary, the tie I mean. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29545568
Pink tie x2…did these dorks coordinate this morning? : /
friggin hilarious. “investors should stay away from this market…” This is classic market manipulation. the lobbyists want to teach obama a lesson. these jokers dont know their ass from their mouth.
PTrainer’s numbers are sadly spot on. An S&P500 drop to 300 would not be unprecedented. Of course at that stage stocks would be massively undervalued, just as they were massively overvalued when they got to 33x P/E in 99. Welcome to the crazy world of irrational, inefficient markets!