Short Term Gainers

What has been irking me lately are the people currently making money in the last 4 weeks. During the downturn in the summer, ppl around here were quiet. Now, they boosting about how they made 20% etc and how good they’re.

Ppl tend to remember their gains but forget all about the losses…

Agreed. From now on let’s only post in three year intervals so we all have the proper perspective.

They are untermenschen. We don’t discuss them.

I do wish I’d had a more exposure since mid December. I had some, but it looks like I missed some possibility there.

In all seriousness, I’m always bummed out there isn’t more discussion about investments on here. Posts where someone actually gives an actionable idea are extremely rare, and when they do it’s even less likely anyone comes back to update the progress of their trade/investment. If you pick a stock and it shoots up 20% in four weeks, sure, tell us about it. Yes, in general people here root against each other. All the more reason to throw it in their face. But, we should also be prepared to take it on the chin when ideas don’t work out.

So bchad you think there won’t be a correction?

Would you suggest a new forum section for investments where people could bounce ideas off each other?

Whenever someone posts an idea Crazy Frank and 10 other people tear it to shreds.

How do you know that 1200 -> 1300 was not a “correction”? No one bought stock in 2011 because they were afraid of the volatility. Now, all those people who were afraid to buy risky assets are getting back into the market.

Yes! Although I’m torn. I almost think I’d rather see a forum for advice topics to get them out of GD. Trade ideas, market outlook, economic issues, etc. probably all belong together. But, if the option is on the table for a forum dedicated to investment themes, I’d ethusiastically take it.

Creating a new forum isn’t going to make people post investment ideas. The problem is that no one is posting, not that there is nowhere to post.

Wait long enough, and there’ll definitely be a correction. I have been getting a little more bullish lately, in part because I think the gloom of late December may have been appropriate, and when public perception of the economy matches reality, then there is a risk premium to be had. The trick, of course, is figuring out what’s appropriate. At the end of the day, you don’t know what the reality of the economy is… all you have is what you think the reality of the economy is. I have a model that I follow, although I’ve been a bit lazy in rebalancing my PA last month, and so I regret not being more on top of it. Work tasks take priority here, but there is a point of pride that’s taken a bit of a beating. The answer, of course, is that it’s possible to increase exposure without going all-in. What keeps me gun-shy is that I like Hussman’s analysis and he’s saying that the problem is that all the current good economic news is coming from coincident indicators, and that the leading indicators are pointing downwards (except for M2).

I don’t think it could hurt. It’s not like GD is amazingly active, but it’s still not practical to post a trade idea and expect people to keep up with it over the course of several weeks. A fairly inactive forum specifically for these ideas would actually be easier to follow, and perhaps facilitate more ideas. The fact is, GD has devolved rapidly over the last year. I never thought I’d actually miss political threads, but it beats the completely asinine topics created daily now (i.e. I suck at finance, how do I get hired as an analyst?). We’re a community of investment professionals that shies away from posting about investments! Change is needed. Keep hope alive. Yes we can.

Perhaps a forum specifically for investment ideas would make sense. I like those discussions, and it would be nice not to have to wade through a ton of “I’ve just graduated and want to make millions; how do I do that by getting you to do my work for me” posts in order to get to them. One question is what would GD discussion end up being then. “Investment Ideas” would be the natural place for people to go to after passing the exams. Few people would answer the “Will CFA bring me hot classy babes” questions, and they’d end up getting reposted in “investment ideas”. I also suspect that an Investment Ideas and Markets Analysis forum would need to have some extra tools to allow people to post and follow investment ideas. A good investment at one time is a bad investment at another, so the dates of the discussion are important. Perhaps there is a way to link investment ideas posts to the username. But that’s a major design project and can’t be solved with a few tweaks here and there.

I noticed that the main Analyst Forum page has some articles that seem to be updated regularly. Why not just make posts in the General Discussion forum that link to these articles? This would be a good start, as it can be done immediately, and will help seed the idea that the General Discussion forum is a place to discuss non-trivial topics. Apparently, someone *is* writing about economics or investment topics. However, no one is reading these articles, since we all have bookmarks that point directly to the forums. Seems like a no-brainer.

I cheer on Palantir…

Frank, what is your 5 year annualized return?

^^^We have an intruder!!!