What are some ways to short gold? I think gold is way too high and could be significantly lower in a few years. This is not to say that we have seen the high of gold, but I think over the next 3-4 years it will drop considerably. Any thoughts? Anyone think that gold/silver prices are NOT a bubble and ARE justified?
You can short the ETF GLD, sell a gold commodity future, or short a gold producer like NEM. I disagree with your long term outlook though. I think gold won’t rise as fast as it has recently, but I don’t think it’s likely to fall much any time soon.
Assuming you can’t sell the futures directly, there are now a variety of gold ETFs you could short. Gold has had a heck of a run, but it’s still way below its inflation adjusted high of about $1700. Saying gold is in a bubble implies it has some sort of fundamental value which it is way above, a position I would argue against.
Well, let’s assume that the economy DOESN’T drop into a recession, or if it does, then it is much milder than originally anticipated. If that happens and some of the more common economic concerns dissipate, then who will be buying Gold?
Current gold consumption is driven by consumer growth in Asia, concerns about using the dollar as a reserve currency, and as a hedge for regional and global security (I.e. wars and such). If there is no recession, the dollar instability portion might be ameliorated, but the other drivers are still in place.
I think Silver will outperform Gold in Q1 and Q2 of this year; then a mild correction starting around May/June.
HoldSideAnalyst Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Assuming you can’t sell the futures directly, > there are now a variety of gold ETFs you could > short. > > Gold has had a heck of a run, but it’s still way > below its inflation adjusted high of about $1700. > Saying gold is in a bubble implies it has some > sort of fundamental value which it is way above, a > position I would argue against. If you can’t afford to short even one futures contract, you probably shouldn’t be making commodity bets. There’s a message in the way those contracts are sized. I also think the shorting the thing because it has had a huge run so it must be going down soon is really dumb. Since we’re all pretty much long dollars in the US and shorting gold is pretty much levering up our long dollar position, this seems doubly dumb.
‘Futures and Options should be outlawed’ -WB
Inflation adjusted high is $2300. Considering the dollar - literally before our eyes - losing it’s role as a store of value, rising oil prices, and a general decrease in global political stability, you would be nuts to short gold (imo). Dito JoeyD, basically. It’s one thing to make a tech bet, but the fundamental situation has to be considered as well; and obviously the case here, fundamentals (listed items) should take the price of gold higher for some time.
3_letters Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ‘Futures and Options should be outlawed’ > > -WB And WB doesn’t like gold. Is WB right?
jpm351 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Inflation adjusted high is $2300. Considering the > dollar - literally before our eyes - losing it’s > role as a store of value, rising oil prices, and a > general decrease in global political stability, > you would be nuts to short gold (imo). Last week BW put the number at $1,763, and quoted Bloomberg as the source. It’s clearly very sensitive the measure of inflation used.